The SaddameterThe odds of war.

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Chance of Invasion
Today: 56 percent

U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan says Security Council won't buy U.S. argument that shots fired by Iraq at planes patrolling no-fly zones violates the latest U.N. resolution. White House backs off that argument. Meanwhile, Iraq says it will comply fully with inspections and disclosure deadlines. Peace spin: U.S. made its case for declaring Iraq noncompliant and was shot down. War spin: This was just the beginning of the case.

Yesterday: 58 percent

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William Saletan is Slate's national correspondent and author of Bearing Right: How Conservatives Won the Abortion War. Follow him on Twitter here.

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