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Barack Obama hasn’t had the best luck in the polls this cycle. Over the past six months, he lagged far behind Hillary Clinton in national polls, he was teased by glowing numbers before his New Hampshire collapse, and he had his candidacy pigeonholed because of hard evidence that he doesn’t appeal to Latinos and women.
But today the numbers finally started to play nice. A new national poll from Time suggests that Obama—not Clinton—is the stronger candidate against McCain. In hypothetical matchups, Obama beats McCain by seven points while McCain ties Clinton. That, despite the fact that Obama still trails Clinton by six points among Democrats. This jives* jibes with a bunch of other polls that have Obama as the stronger general election warrior. It seems Obama, aided by independents, is more electable in the general election than in the Democratic primary.
In a primary race that is increasingly becoming about personality—not issues—electability is going to start to matter again. Primaries are now explicitly about what’s best for the party—not just what’s best for a state or the country. This is where John McCain’s early(ish) coronation helps Democrats—despite talk otherwise. The opponent across the aisle is no longer abstract. Previously, with a wide-open Republican field, there were too many calculations to make. Voters going to the polls now have to judge which candidate can best take down a moderate, independent-courting Republican. Obama now has the concrete data to combat the Dems’ concrete Republican opponent.
Moreover, this helps quiet the “all-fluff” criticisms that have dogged Obama. Who cares if hope and change seem like they shouldn’t be electable messages? Polls show they are!
The Democratic campaign has evolved from a primary to a primary-general election hybrid. McCain is the sometimes-talked-about elephant in the room—they’re running as much against one another as the Republican nominee. As the candidates run out of things to say about each other, they’re going to start talking about Johnny Mac a whole lot more. And as of now, Obama has more to brag about.
*UPDATE Feb. 11, 4:40 p.m.: A loyal and hawkeyed reader points out that I totally misused the word jive. It should have been jive. Sorry for dancing around the appropriate wording.
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With his primary rival out of the race and his secondary rival hardly a threat, John McCain can now begin scouring the Earth for the perfect running mate. The size of that world is not very big. In fact, there are a few specific factors McCain will be looking for in a nominee. Here’s what they are, and who might fit the bill.
Location, location, location. When asked what factors he would consider in a vice president, McCain insisted that geography would not be one of them. But everyone knows he could use a little help below the Mason-Dixon. On Super Tuesday, he lost to Mike Huckabee in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, and Tennessee. Plus, despite his conservative record on social issues, many Republicans still see him as weak. (See Dobson, James.) So who has Southern cred? Fred Thompson fits the bill—but then again, he lost those states, too. Huckabee himself is an obvious choice, although his “fair tax” evangelism would quickly alienate fiscal conservatives, even if they like his real evangelism. Which brings us to:
Money man. Before dropping out, Mitt Romney carried the torch of fiscal conservatism for Campaign 2008. Now McCain will have to pick it up, but he could use the help of a stalwart, limited-government veep. South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint’s name has been floated, given his commitment to health-care markets and school choice, as well as the toothectomy he wants to give Sarbanes-Oxley. On the executive side, S.C. Gov. Mark Sanford has fought the state legislature’s spending initiatives, vetoing 106 items in 2004 in an attempt to balance a $155 million deficit. Now there’s a guy who hates the other white meat.
United we stand. McCain is widely known (and widely despised) for cross-aisle initiatives, from McCain-Feingold to his role in the bipartisan “Gang of 14” that negotiated a compromise in the filibuster battle of 2005. In the same spirit, he has brought Sen. Joe Lieberman on the trail, with generally positive reception. Choosing Lieberman as a running mate, as Newt Gingrich has suggested, could be an effective weapon against Obama’s calls for unity. Or, if Hillary were the nominee, it could help McCain win disaffected Democrats. That said, it could cost him immeasurably among true believers. Conservatives may love Lieberman because he’s an apostate Democrat—but he’s still a Democrat.
Who’s the boss? As a senator, McCain doesn’t have executive experience. Then again, neither will his Democratic opponent. But choosing a veep who has “run something” would give him an added edge, especially among conservatives concerned with an efficiently run government. Huckabee would be ideally suited, if he weren’t famous for his relatively liberal economic policies as chief exec of Arkansas. Romney would be great, too, if he and McCain hadn’t already blasted each other to bits over who’s more conservative. Govs. Tim Pawlenty (Minn.), John Huntsman (Utah), and Charlie Crist (Fla.) have shown up on speculative short lists as possible veeps. Pawlenty has been an enthusiastic Mac backer; Huntsman, a Mormon, abandoned Mitt Romney for McCain in the former’s home state, where 90 percent of Republicans are Mormon and Romney took 89 percent of the vote; and the hugely popular Crist nudged Florida over to McCain. Plus, their conservative bona fides fairly shimmer.
Just a number. The last time a septuagenarian won the presidency, he turned his age to his advantage by joking that he wouldn’t hold his opponent’s “youth and inexperience” against him. McCain can play the same card, but questions about his health and energy level will persist, especially if confronting a fresh-faced youth like Obama. There’s a batch of vice presidential young’uns out there, including South Dakota Sen. John Thune and former Sen. George Allen, who endorsed McCain on Thursday. Then again, just about anyone would look youthful standing next to John McCain.
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After the fourth quarter of 2007, we thought the donations war was over until the next quarterly FEC reports. How naive.
It’s gotten only more intense. First, Obama announced his fund-raising totals for January: $32 million. Hillary wouldn’t say how much she had raised that month—she told reporters they could wait to see the reports—but her campaign chairman blurted to MSNBC that it was somewhere around $13.5 million.
Then on Wednesday, word leaked that Hillary had loaned herself $5 million. At first, the news seemed dire. The campaign immediately sent out an e-mail to supporters setting a fund-raising goal of $3 million in three days. They got $6.4 million in two days. Act of desperation or brilliant fund-raising ploy? You decide.
Obama’s camp tried to regain the moment by announcing that it had raised $7.2 million in the same 48 hours. Then today, Clinton’s team announced that it has raised $8 million since Super Tuesday.
Do I hear 8.1? $8.1 million, anybody?
This is the problem with a contest that drags on past Super Tuesday: The campaigns find smaller and smaller things to bicker over. At this point, they might as well hold 24-hour conference calls with running financial updates, taking breaks only when they fall behind in the monetary arms race. We'll update you when the Obama campaign sends out its counter-statement. Probably, oh, five minutes from now.
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By Christopher Beam and Chadwick Matlin
This time, we really don’t know what to expect. Pollsters, still scrambling to catch up after Super Tuesday, haven’t sunk many resources in the next batch of contests, so we get to live a dream scenario where we—and the voters—don’t actually know whom the public favors. And from the polls we do have, we can’t construct a reliably solid average, since we can’t be sure that the limited numbers we’re seeing aren’t outliers.
Despite all this, we’ll go out on a limb and handicap the weekend’s contests below. Republicans aren’t included because Mitt Romney was a party pooper. If our Democratic predictions are wrong, don’t say we didn’t warn you.
Saturday, Feb. 9
Lousiana (67 delegates, closed primary): There are only two things you need to know about the Bayou. First, Barack Obama visited the state this month—to propose a rebuild-New Orleans plan—and Hillary Clinton did not. Secondly, the state’s population is 32 percent black, according to post-Katrina census figures. Look for an Obama win.
Nebraska (31 delegates, closed caucus): It’s an Obama-friendly caucus that borders his mother’s home state of Kansas. Omaha’s paper showered him with praise Friday, running a glowing headline after his visit Thursday: “It’s Obamaha for a day.” Chelsea Clinton has been doing all of the campaigning there for Hillary, who has never made a stop in the state. Obama should win this.
Washington (97 delegates, semi-open caucus): This is the big prize of the night thanks to a relatively large delegate total and built-in road blocks for each candidate. Clinton doesn’t like caucuses, and Obama is without a large black population to drive his vote. In the only poll taken over the last three months, Obama leads Clinton with a majority of the vote. (The poll was taken before Super Tuesday.) Perhaps more importantly, he leads Clinton slightly among women. A quarter of those surveyed say they’re planning to attend the caucus. Both candidates have campaigned in the state: Clinton has made three stops, Obama one. Early poll results mixed with a caucus system point toward an Obama win, unless Hillary’s in-person charm wins the Northwest over.
Virgin Islands (3 delegates, convention): You’re probably better off flipping a coin than taking this paragraph as gospel—but we’ll try anyway. Unsurprisingly, there’s no polling data to work with, but we do know that convention systems favor party die-hards (see Huckabee’s sort-of win in West Virginia). Die-hards tend to favor establishment candidates, so we’ll predict that Clinton picks up three delegates here. You laugh at the puny total now, but wait until we’re neck-deep in obscure delegate law at the convention and these delegates end up making the difference.
Sunday, Feb. 10
Maine (34 delegates, caucus): Both candidates will be in the state Saturday, and Bill Clinton and Ted Kennedy campaigned there earlier in the week. A caucus system suggests Obama might be the man of the day, but at least one Maine resident and professor doesn’t get it. The large white population coupled with Clinton’s establishment support suggests Obama’s sunk. But a caucus is a caucus, and until Clinton wins one where Latinos don’t play a disproportionate role (unlike in Nevada and New Mexico), we’ll favor Obama.
Tuesday, Feb. 12
The Potomac Primary
The District of Columbia was originally scheduled to hold its primary Jan. 8 but decided to band together with its Chesapeake siblings Maryland and Virginia to form a regional alliance. Separately, they would melt into the background; together, they could influence the contest big time.
District of Columbia (37 delegates, primary): Despite Hillary’s former occupation of a certain Pennsylvania Ave. residence for eight years, Obama holds an advantage. After Obama won more than 80 percent of the black vote on Super Tuesday, Washington’s largely black population will most likely swing his way. He also has the support of local heavies like mayor Adrian Fenty and councilman Marion Barry. Clinton hasn’t written D.C. off, and even beat Obama in a December straw poll. But it will be rough going. Also worth noting: a victory in the nation’s capital could hold some small symbolic value.
Maryland (99 delegates, closed primary): Maryland’s nickname, the Free State, is fitting, seeing as Obama will likely get it for free. The state’s population includes a mix of Obama’s white support base—wealthy suburbanites, liberals, and college students—and the largest proportion of black voters outside the South. Clinton, however, has the backing of Gov. Martin O'Malley and Lt. Gov. Anthony G. Brown.
Virginia (101 delegates, open primary): Of the three jurisdictions, Virginia will be the most competitive. Obama has Gov. Tim Kaine behind him, but Clinton has extensive connections to the region through spokesman Mo Elleithee and finance official Matt Felan. She’s also been sinking resources into the region, particularly in the outer suburbs of Prince William and Loudon counties. Obama is strong in Northern Virginia, with its immigrants and young professionals, but working-class sections of the southwest, where economic concerns are paramount, may swing toward Clinton.