Trailhead: A campaign blog.

More "Judas"

In yesterday’s Washington Post, Bill Richardson offered his best retort yet to James Carville’s comparison of Richardson to “Judas”:

Carville and others say that I owe President Clinton's wife my endorsement because he gave me two jobs. Would someone who worked for Carville then owe his wife, Mary Matalin, similar loyalty in her professional pursuits? Do the people now attacking me recall that I ran for president, albeit unsuccessfully, against Sen. Clinton? Was that also an act of disloyalty?

Bill Clinton reportedly flew off the handle in a meeting with superdelegates last weekend when the subject of Richardson came up. From the San Francisco Chronicle:

“Five times to my face [Richardson] said that he would never do that,” a red-faced, finger-pointing Clinton erupted.

He should have said three. Then he would have had the Peter parallel, too.
 

Bill Richardson's Expert Timing

Remember how during the Democratic debates, Bill Richardson was always the can’t-we-all-just-get-along candidate? Whenever things got too heated, that's when Richardson would start intoning (to the point of irritation) about ending divisions, bringing people together, and rising above petty differences.

Now, in his endorsement of Barack Obama today, he’s sticking with that message, this time as a way of calling for an end to the Democratic race:

It is time, however, for Democrats to stop fighting amongst ourselves and to prepare for the tough fight we will face against John McCain in the Fall.

People say Richardson should have endorsed earlier—that he could have been more effective before the Texas vote. Perhaps. But on the other hand, Richardson now gets to do what he does best: intervene at the moment of greatest tension and say, Come on people, bring it in. He was always better at playing the peace-making voice of reason than the partisan warrior. So from that perspective, if Obama’s new strategy is to convince superdelegates to wrap this thing up, Richardson’s timing couldn’t have been better.

Q: Why Did Richardson Cross the Road?

A: To get superdelegates to the other side.

Two months and dozens of primaries after dropping out of the race, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson finally went public with his undying love for Barack Obama. He’ll be in Oregon with Obama today to officially announce his endorsement.

This isn’t exactly a surprise. There have always been rumors that Richardson’s precinct captains told their Iowa supporters to back Obama if Richardson didn’t meet the viability threshold at their caucuses. Earlier this month, just before the Ohio and Texas primaries, Richardson showed up on Face the Nation with a beard and a definitive message: “Whoever has the most delegates after Tuesday, a clear lead, should be, in my judgment, the nominee.” Richardson knew that Obama had the lead going into that Texahio Tuesday, and that he still would coming out of it.

We’re still not sure endorsements matter—Ted Kennedy flubbed miserably—but if they do, then this one might carry some weight. Richardson gained some national recognition when he was running for president, but his lack of star power doomed him. His résumé remains impressive, and he polled reasonably well in Iowa before Iowans decided a caucus threesome of John, Barack, and Hillary was exciting enough.

The significance of the endorsement isn’t what it would have been two months ago. If Richardson made an endorsement pre-Super Tuesday, his support would have been seen as simply a high-profile Latino supporting Obama. But now, Richardson’s a high-profile superdelegate who wants the primary to be over even more than he wants Obama to win. He could have continued to sit on the sidelines until after Pennsylvania’s primary, but he sidled up to Obama now to try to end the race before it hurts the party. When you dovetail his support with it's-about-time media reports that Clinton’s path to the nomination is blocked off, Richardson knows this could be a clarion call to other superdelegates.

There's been a smooth, if unimpressive, flow of superdelegates to Obama since Super Tuesday, but Clinton's victories have forced superdelegates to think twice about crossing the street to hang with the cool kid. Uncommitted superdelegates have spent the last two months nervously looking both ways before they cross. Richardson had the stones to be one of the first to start walking. He won't be the last.

The Bill Richardson Bump

The oddly fickle (and spookily accurate) political-futures markets have made some bizarre predictions. Anyone betting against Ron Paul or Al Gore to become president stood to make a lot of money. There was also a big Giuliani-for-VP upswing last week, for no apparent reason.

In the same tradition, a friend points out that today around noon, the Bill Richardson for Vice President stock doubled on InTrade—and it’s unclear why. Buzz about a potential Richardson endorsement has been building for the past week. If Richardson endorses Obama and Obama does better than expected among Texas Latinos, the New Mexico governor could plausibly take some credit.

But nothing particularly game-changing has happened today—has it? Maybe some insider knowledge has leaked to traders but not to the rest of us? (Shouldn’t insider trading be against the rules, anyway?)

Who knows, maybe Richardson himself just bought up a bunch of shares and plans to endorse.

Check out Slate's "Political Futures" page here.

Courting Bill Richardson

As the Hispanic-heavy votes in Florida, California, Arizona, and New Mexico approach, Bill Richardson is suddenly the most popular guy around. Apparently he’s been fielding calls from the two leading candidates and their surrogates.

Richardson describes himself as “torn.” On the one hand, he served in the Clinton administration. On the other, Obama once bailed him out during a debate. The Post’s Jose Antonio Vargas has the hilarious anecdote: 

I had just been asked a question -- I don't remember which one -- and Obama was sitting right next to me. Then the moderator went across the room, I think to Chris Dodd, so I thought I was home free for a while. I wasn't going to listen to the next question. I was about to say something to Obama when the moderator turned to me and said, "So, Gov. Richardson, what do you think of that?" But I wasn't paying any attention! I was about to say, "Could you repeat the question? I wasn't listening." But I wasn't about to say I wasn't listening. I looked at Obama. I was just horrified. And Obama whispered, "Katrina. Katrina." The question was on Katrina! So I said, "On Katrina, my policy ..." Obama could have just thrown me under the bus. So I said, "Obama, that was good of you to do that."

Now all Obama needs to whisper is, "Secretary of state. Secretary of state," and Richardson is his!

UPDATE 11:02 a.m.: Hillary will be announcing a "MAJOR ENDORSEMENT" in a 1 p.m. conference call. Could it be? Stay tuned.  

Richardson's Iraq Policy Explained

Finally, a glimpse into Bill Richardson's mind. From an email Richardson wrote to his supporters announcing his withdrawal today:

It was my hope that all of you would first hear this news from me and not a news organization. But unfortunately, as with too many things in our world today, it's the ending of something that garners the most intense interest and speculation. (emphasis added)

So that's why he wanted to end the war so badly.

Well Yes, That's One Way of Putting It

Bill Richardson, who got two percent of the delegates in Iowa, just sent out this laughable spin:  

"We made it to the final four," Richardson said. "My staff and volunteers worked their hearts out to get us here. Now we are going to take the fight to New Hampshire."

Richardson received 7 % of the vote in entrance polls. After watching the results at a rally in Des Moines, he boarded a plane for New Hampshire.

What Not to Say About Pakistan

If there's a lesson to be learned from international crises and the campaign trail, it's that candidates should do their homework before speaking.

Mike Huckabee got burned earlier this month when it became clear he didn't know about a new National Intelligence Estimate assessing Iran's nuclear capabilities. This time, commenting on the assassination of former Pakistan prime minister Benazir Bhutto, he said the U.S. must consider “what impact does it have on whether or not there’s going to be martial law continuing in Pakistan.” Martial law was lifted two weeks ago.

Bill Richardson also botched the test, and he doesn't have a lack of international experience to blame. Richardson issued a statement calling for President Musharraf to resign. "Until this happens, we should suspend military aid to the Pakistani government," he said. Richardson has sounded increasingly shrill in recent months, from his blanket insistence on "no residual troops" in Iraq to his transparent attempts at peacemaking during the debates. His Pakistan comments just sound desperate. Naturally, Joe Biden pounced, with a spokesperson calling Richardson's statement "so wildly irresponsible that it can't go unchallenged."

Leave it to Mitt Romney to step in as the voice of reason. Responding to reporters' questions about whether he has enough foreign policy experience to be president, he said: “The president is not an expert. The president is a leader who guides America in making the important decisions which must be made to keep us safe.” True words, although it's odd to hear such a salient defense of Huckabee's ignorance come from Romney's mouth. Even if the two men have their differences, at least they can agree that a president doesn't have to know all that much.

Kingmakers: Bill Richardson

Because the Democratic Iowa caucuses are as outdated as Alan Keyes, they're governed by rules that don't jive with the rest of American democracy. Most offensive is the stipulation that voters can support a second choice candidate if their first choice doesn't get 15 percent at their local caucus. It's like an elementary-school recess nightmare, where you're forced to hang out with the popular kids you hate.

This means that in many caucuses, supporters of Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, and Dennis Kucinich are going to throw their weight behind one of the Big Three. It's these votes that may make the difference in the final tally.  

With that in mind, here's a closer look at who Richardson supporters should pick as their second choice, based on Richardson's major policies.

Iraq: Richardson supports an immediate withdrawal, even if it means no residual forces. Ron Paul fits this description better than any of the Big Three, but John Edwards wants to pull the most troops out the quickest, so he gets the nod. 

Immigration: The candidates largely share the same vision on immigration, but a flashback to Hillary Clinton's driver's license flap is instructive. Richardson and Barack Obama both supported New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer's plan to offer driver's licenses to illegal immigrants. Clinton infamously couldn't decide (and then did), and Edwards hedged his answer. Obama, despite a confusing response during a debate, is closest to Richardson here.

Health care: Nobody really seems all that impressed with Bill Richardson's health-care plan, including himself. So, this one's a wash. 

Résumé: There isn't a candidate in the Big Three who can match Richardson's devotion to public service. Clinton narrowly edges Obama because Richardson's experience lies in hard power diplomacy, not the soft power Obama markets.

Tone: Richardson has rushed to Clinton's aid throughout the campaign, fueling rumors of a vice presidential nod.  

Richardson is running a more national campaign than any of his second-tier colleagues, so he tends to be a forgotten cog in the caucus wheel. But he's polling at an average of eight percent in the Hawkeye State. Those votes have to go towards somebody on caucus night, and they probably won't be allowed to go towards Richardson. Clinton-Richardson '08?

Talking the Talk

Using data from the indispensable New York Times’ debate analyzer , I crunched some word-per-second numbers from last night’s debate. Dodd talks faster than Biden and Richardson speaks the slowest of all. Clinton and Obama’s cadences, meanwhile, are in sync.

Why I Hate Lightning Rounds

Is it just me, or does the “lightning round” represent everything that’s wrong with American political discourse? I understand that candidates can get wheezy and it's necessary to set limits. But the idea that you can even begin to give a satisfying answer in 30 seconds is absurd. Worst of all, you get these extended cut-off battles, which makes the candidate’s answer sound verbose and meandering, even when it's not:

[BRIAN] WILLIAMS: Governor Richardson, we're going to start with you. This is about something called Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study. It's called TIMSS. A number of overseas nations took part in it. It found that overseas students spend an average of 193 days annually in school. The deficit compared to the U.S., where it's 180 days -- over 12 years, that adds up to one-year gap between education in the U.S. and overseas. Do you believe we in this country need to extend the school day and/or extend the school year? And will you commit to it?

GOV. RICHARDSON: Yes, I'd commit to it. And I'm glad finally education is coming up in a major debate. This is what I would do. We are 29th in the world in science and math compared to the EU, to countries in China and India. They graduate four or five times more engineers. There is a competitiveness gap here. This is what I would do. One, I'd have 100,000 new science and math teachers. But we have to pay our teachers what they deserve, a minimum wage, what I believe, of $40,000 per year. I'd get rid of No Child Left Behind. I would have science and math academies.

MR. WILLIAMS: Time.

GOV. RICHARDSON: But in the high school curriculum, it's critically important --

MR. WILLIAMS: Time.

GOV. RICHARDSON: -- that we have more civics, more language, and art in the schools -- 

MR. WILLIAMS: Governor?

GOV. RICHARDSON: -- to provoke creativity in science and math proficiency. 

MR. WILLIAMS: Thirty-second limit on these.

(See nifty New York Times transcript analyzer here.)

Space Race

Bill Richardson's a believer. So is Dennis Kucinich. Even Rudy Giuliani is willing to admit that extraterrestrials might be out there.

The 2008 presidential race is starting to look like an Alf convention. Last week, Kucinich's alien beliefs were outed by his good friend Shirley MacLaine. Her new book details Kucinich's run-in with a UFO on her porch: "It hovered, soundless, for 10 minutes or so, and sped away with a speed he couldn't comprehend. He said he felt a connection in his heart and heard directions in his mind." One can only guess what those directions may have said.

Earlier this month, an 8-year-old kid asked Giuliani, "If you find that there is something living on another planet and it is bad and it comes over here what would you do?" Rudy, ever vigilant on national security matters, assured the boy that there won't be a repeat of Independence Day if he's in the Oval Office. "Well if we're properly prepared for all of the different things that can happen to us, we'll be prepared for that, as well," he said with a grin.

But it was Bill Richardson who spoke most explicitly on the UFO issue last weekend. Speaking to Dell employees in Texas, Richardson said that if he became president, he would continue his long fight to release top-secret files on Roswell, New Mexico's infamous "flying disc" recovery. In a foreword to Roswell Dig Diaries, a 2004 Sci Fi Channel book, the New Mexico governor wrote that he has never been satisfied with the government's explanation and that the "American people can handle the truth." Considering Richardson makes up part of the "ET Ticket," I guess it should come as no surprise.

Giuliani and Richardson have even managed to use aliens for political gain. The terrorist threat pales in comparison with an alien invasion, so if Giuliani can protect us from little green men, then Osama should be a walk in the Pakistani park. Richardson's assertion that he would release top-secret Roswell files if he became president implies that he is willing to run a transparent White House with all nonalien issues, as well.

One more thing—it shouldn't come as a shock, but Mike Gravel is a believer, too.