Trailhead: A campaign blog.

The Casey-Rendell Nexus

Here’s a fascinating historical parallel to the Pennsylvania primary, from Politico: 

Political analysts point to the 2002 Democratic gubernatorial primary between Ed Rendell and Bob Casey Jr. as the closest comparison to the matchup between Obama and Clinton.

Rendell won that closely contested race with a coalition of African Americans and upscale, highly educated white voters—a coalition like the one assembled by Obama. Casey focused on blue collar workers, union households, lower-income individuals and ethnic white voters—strikingly similar to Clinton’s base in Pennsylvania.

Yet now each man is boosting the candidate of the opposite coalition. Rendell backs Clinton, even though Obama depends on the same combo of blacks and educated whites as Rendell did. And Casey backs Obama, even though Clinton appeals more to the working-class voters who put him in office.

It’s this kind of crossover that should make Democrats less concerned about party unity in the fall. If leaders with strong demographic associations like Casey and Rendell enthusiastically throw their weight behind the nominee, voters will follow.

On the other hand, Obama might be uncomfortable having Rendell pushing for him, now that this video has surfaced …

Rendell, Off-Message as Usual

Via Ben Smith, here’s a great video of Gov. Ed Rendell berating talking to college students who support Obama.

It’s almost pointless to note Rendell going off-message—it happens every time he opens his mouth. But this time, he’s essentially repeating Obama’s line about all three candidates being pretty darned good. Here’s Rendell in the video: 

John McCain is an exceptional person. I think we’ve got three exceptional people running for president. … Don’t be sad, be happy. This is a good field.

To be fair, Clinton critized Obama for saying McCain was "better than Bush," not for praising him. (She has had kind words for McCain in the past, too, but only to further emphasize Obama's impotence.) But Rendell isn't making her case any easier. In Democrat-land, McCain is Bush, period.

Update 5:20 p.m.: Forgot to mention two other instances of dangerous Rendellian honesty. Around the 1:30 mark, Rendell manages to praise both Gov. Deval Patrick and Ronald Reagan. Rendell says he believes Patrick's argument that "words can move people." Oops. Also, he thinks Reagan "was an effective president." Double oops! Of course, he's making the larger point that rhetoric isn't enough—you have to back it up with action. But as we've learned, context is no defense!

"I Didn't Like Hillary Clinton"

Always count on Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell to speak slightly too candidly. In a conference call just now, he responded to a question about Hillary Clinton’s unfavorability rating, which hovers around 43 percent: “When this started a year ago, I didn’t like Hillary Clinton.”

Rendell went on to speculate that by fall, Clinton’s unfavorables “will be down 8, 10, 12, 14 percent.” Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter, who was also in on the call, agreed, “As people get to know you and know what you’re about, a lot of that stuff goes off to the side.”

Who knows, maybe they’re right. But if eight years as first lady, six years as a U.S. senator, and more than a year on the campaign trail haven’t given people a chance to “get to know” Clinton, why should the next eight months be different?