-
sponsorship
For a candidate trying to combat portrayals of himself as a fey elitist, Obama could be choosing his speaking venues more carefully.
A headline in today’s Des Moines Register announces that Obama “returns to D.M. today for east-side rally.” The city’s east side is home to many of the sort of white, working-class voters Obama has struggled to win over; you’d think he was trying to reach out. But read further down, and you see that it’s actually the “East Village” where he’s speaking.
Trailhead reader and Obama supporter Doug Cutchins describes his disappointment: “[T]he East Village is a wholly different entity – it’s the gentrified, buy-warehouses-and-turn-them-into-condos-with-an-art-gallery neighborhood of Des Moines. Yuppie latte central. So instead of reaching out, he’s playing to his base (and stereotypes).”
Obama might as well be holding his rally in Park Slope, Brooklyn. Here’s how Adam Nagourney described the area in the New York Times back in December: “The East Village streets, spread out under the State Capitol, were aglow with lights — lavender, icy blue and, of course, red and green — strung out for Christmas. They were bustling with boutiques, bookstores, coffee shops, culinary stores and Smash, an edgy T-shirt shop where the proprietors were listening to Band of Horses while making slightly off-color T-shirts celebrating the Iowa caucuses.”
You can’t blame Obama for wanting to return to the site of his first major victory, and the rally is just blocks from Iowa campaign headquarters. But Clinton’s Kentucky win will be yet another reminder of Obama’s weakness among blue-collar whites. In the past week, Clinton has dropped her argument that Obama can’t win this group, presumably because of the negative reaction to her comment about “hard-working white Americans.” But with venue selection like this, Obama is practically making it for her.
-
sponsorship
For a dose of perspective, this is what MSNBC's hompage looked like at 1:35 a.m. early Friday morning.
-
sponsorship
GRINNELL, Iowa—People are just starting to trickle into the Harris Center here at Grinnell College, where I’ll be observing the caucus here for the next couple of hours. It’s a college town, obviously, so students and faculty are expected to be a big part of the turnout.
The Grinnell population is overwhelmingly Democratic, and Obama seems to be the most popular Democrat. The Republicans on campus can be “counted on two hands,” says one student.
This precinct, Grinnell’s Ward 1, has the most delegates of any precinct in Iowa: 37. The reason is that delegates are allotted based on previous turnout. In 2004, when the caucuses fell during the school year, Grinnell students caucused in droves. As a result, they now have 30 percent more delegates than the next most delegate-rich precinct. So in a sense, these caucus-goers have a lot more power than most.
Don Smith, the precinct captain, gives me a bright green Post-It sticker that marks me as an observer. “You’d be surprised how easy it is to participate,” he tells me. “This process really depends on the honesty of people.”
-
sponsorship
For every candidate who moves one step closer to the presidency tonight, there will be several whose lust for the White House will be squelched. Starting today, we'll keep track of whose candidacy is most likely to bite the dust. Think of it as a Bizarro Power Rankings. This is the pre-caucus edition; we'll have another one up after the dust settles tomorrow.
Dead on arrival
Democrats
Chris Dodd--Dodd has had more success in the Capitol than on the trail in the last few months. A strong third or fourth at the caucus is the only thing that could revive his campaign, but even those chances are low. Joe Biden has soaked up all of Dodd's potential support. Look for a concession speech coming to a CNN near you.
Republicans
Fred Thompson--Thompson's advisers say he'll drop out (which Thompson denies). Thompson has never appeared to want in. Unless he finishes in second, this is a done deal. The biggest question surrounding his campaign is whether his concession speech will just be a live shot of him taking a nap.
The walking dead
Democrats
Bill Richardson--Richardson has made a play in New Hampshire, so he'll probably last until at least Jan. 8. But there isn't a plausible scenario where he gets the boost he needs. Richardson has more money than the other second-tier candidates, so third-place finishes are adequate, not momentum-changers. For Richardson, there's no way forward without a stunning first- or second-place finish tonight.
On life support
Democrats
Joe Biden--Biden has made 83 percent of his stops in Iowa. If he's going to get a boost anywhere, it's in the Hawkeye State. But he'll need to place third to stave off the vultures. And even then, he may enter New Hampshire as a member of the walking dead.
John Edwards--Edwards has further to fall than Biden, and in some ways is even more likely to do so. Anything but first would cripple his chances at a national nomination, because it would create the Obama-Clinton matchup the press has been waiting for. With that said, we won't see a concession if he doesn't win.
Republicans
Mitt Romney--Romney isn't giving a concession speech, either. But he is screwed if he doesn't finish in first. No Iowa means no positive buzz in New Hampshire; no momentum in New Hampshire means no way to overcome devastating editorials in the New Hampshire Union Leader; no New Hampshire means no Michigan; no Michigan means no South Carolina; no South Carolina means no Florida; no Florida means no competition against Rudy Giuliani on Feb. 5. Yeah, this is about as must-win as it gets.
Mike Huckabee--One win in Iowa can shove him way down on this list. No concession speech tonight, but things get awfully dicey for him without a win in Iowa. Evangelicals will turn out for him in all of the primaries, but he needs more than just his built-in base.
The enigmas
Democrats
Dennis Kucinich--Kucinich will last until at least California, and probably much further than that. He didn't drop out of the 2004 race until July, so he's in this for the long haul, whatever that means in this case.
Mike Gravel--I kid, I kid. But seriously, the beauty of being off the radar in every state means that no loss is a crushing blow.
Republicans
Duncan Hunter--What's the straw that breaks this camel's back? He'll most likely be excluded from the debates in New Hampshire, which means other debates can exclude him. He wasted his chance to distinguish himself after his doppelganger, Tom Tancredo, dropped out.
Not going anywhere
Democrats
Hillary Clinton--Yeah, right.
Barack Obama--He's fired up. He's not ready to go.
Republicans
John McCain--McCain has little to lose and everything to gain tonight. His people have to be giddy about how the Huckaboom/bust political economy has played out. Plus, he was already on the verge of death this summer. Lazarus doesn't go down without a fight.
Rudy Giuliani--Ironically, we already know there's no chance Rudy Giuliani drops out after tonight.
Ron Paul--The man is going to be a third-party candidate. Unless he's not. Unless he is. Who the hell knows, anymore? Either way, he's not leaving any time soon.
-
sponsorship
Months before caucus mania descended on the country, various story lines were floated by the political media to try and create a little drama. But now that the caucuses are upon us, it's worth a look back at the story fads that turned out to be useless.
- The early caucus: Not too long ago, Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, South Carolina, and Florida all competed in an arms race to be one of the first primaries in the nation. But now it's Jan. 3, and Iowa and New Hampshire are still voting first, albeit a few weeks earlier than usual. Big whoop. We should have trusted in some political form of game theory all along.
Russell Crowe John Nash has New Hampshire's back.
- Organge Bowl: Pundits also decried a Jan. 3 caucus date because they thought Iowans wouldn't caucus if the Orange Bowl was on at the same time. Considering candidates' turnout models are inching higher and higher, that seems like hogwash. Plus, who wants to watch Virginia Tech and Kansas in Florida? (Besides Rudy Giuliani.)
- Fund raising: Unbeknownst to everybody (except Ron Paul supporters), the fourth fund-raising quarter ended at midnight on New Year's Eve. But the media barely cared. That's because the fund-raising story lines—while somewhat insightful—are created mainly so the media have something to write about in the dog days of the campaign. Now that there are real stories involving real votes, the media have turned their back on their former muse. Moreover, candidates have barely mentioned their fourth-quarter hauls, in fear that the media will care if their opponents subsequently one-up them.
- Giuliani vs. Romney: The Republican race used to be the Romniani show, yet both of the candidates are hobbling into the primaries. Romney and Giuliani used to bicker with each other over taxes, line-item vetoes, and immigration at the debates. But looking back on it, that was all a red herring. At this point, it's more likely that one of them will ask the other to be his VP. Now, Romney and Giuliani will only go head to head if both candidates can last through Florida and Feb. 5, a scenario that's only possible if Romney wins Iowa and Giuliani stays relevant.
-
sponsorship
In case you haven't heard, the Democratic caucuses in Iowa aren't exactly a microcosm of American democracy. Secret ballots are unheard of, candidates bribe voters with sandwiches, and second choices aren't just allowed, they're sometimes requested.
On Thursday night many supporters of Bill Richardson, Chris Dodd, Dennis Kucinich, and Joe Biden won't be allowed to vote for their candidate. Democratic caucus rules say that any candidate who doesn't pull in 15 percent of the vote at the local caucus meeting isn't "viable," so their supporters must pick another candidate if they want their vote to count. Let's hear it for the democratic process!
Given that, we thought we'd put together a helpful guide for second-tier supporters when they have to shift allegiances. (Richardson supporters can find advice here.) Here’s a rundown on which candidates most closely share Biden's positions (just in case supporters lose their Mo-Joe):
Pakistan: Somehow, John Edwards has been getting rave reviews for his handling of post-Bhutto Pakistan, but picking up the phone when Pervez Musharraf calls doesn't make you an expert. Hillary Clinton seems like she could be a nice fit, with her competency and experience, but Barack Obama is the winner. Even though Biden was annoyed when Obama aped Biden's stance on attacking al-Qaida in Pakistan, the plans still resemble each other.
Iraq: Biden's three-part soft-partition plan is considered the gold-standard among Democrats, which means any of the Big Three are a step backward. This one's a wash.
Health care: Biden's plan doesn’t call for mandatory universal care, but it does make health care accessible to all children. It's far from all of the top Democrats, but it's closest to Obama's since there isn't a mandate for adults.
Resume: If Bill Richardson were polling higher, we'd give him the nod. But since he's unlikely to top the 15 percent threshold in most precincts, Clinton gets the edge. Not because of her White House experience, but because she's the only two-term senator among the top Dems.
There isn't an easy second-choice candidate for Biden supporters. His appeal comes from his foreign affairs expertise and his no-nonsense attitude. In many ways, Biden supporters would probably find a home with John McCain more than any other candidate. That says more about the Democratic front-runners than it does about McCain.
-
sponsorship
Even if Barack Obama loses Iowa, he could still win the nomination. Seriously.
The conventional wisdom is that if Clinton wins Iowa, Obama's shot at the presidency is shot. While that's certainly possible—and probably probable—pundits seem to be forgetting that momentum isn't everything.
There's a very real chance Obama could win New Hampshire even if he loses Iowa by a reasonable amount (e.g., less than five percentage points). Obama is essentially tied with Clinton in New Hampshire in polling averages, and John Edwards is less of a factor in the competition for the change vote. More telling, perhaps, is that only 6 percent of New Hampshire Democrats say their own vote will be swayed by the Iowa outcome. (Of course, who would cop to that?) Plus, New Hampshire has picked a different winner than Iowa in the Democratic primary three of the past five contested cycles (although not in the past two).
So, what if New Hampshire asserts itself and plays contrarian to Iowa's conventional wisdom? In a year when it was en vogue to hate on New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary, it's reasonable to think that residents will give the finger to the media, Iowa, and the rest of the country. Live-free-or-die pride is on the line.
One question has percolated in the background all cycle: Are voters waiting for somebody else to tell them it's OK to vote for the black guy with little experience but a big idea? An Obama win in the Granite State would start revealing the answer.
If Obama defeated Clinton in her former firewall state, all of the Clinton inevitability stories will be washed away by pro-Obama headlines. Clinton would probably win Nevada regardless (unless the culinary union backs Obama), which brings us to Jan. 26 in South Carolina. There, Obama's campaign thinks the black population will come out to vote as long as one of the first two states confirms Obama as a viable candidate.
Now, it's still more likely for Clinton to emerge the victor from most of the four meaningful early primaries. But if she and Obama split them, momentum won't be as large a factor. Momentum, after all, is only useful for convincing voters that votes won't be wasted. Anyone who wins two out of the first four states has proven viability, if not electability.
-
sponsorship
Another Democratic debate is taking place in Iowa right now, but this one is camera-free. National Public Radio is broadcasting the debate, moderated by Michele Norris, Steve Inskeep, and Robert Siegel.
Politicos expected the debate to be relatively low-key, thanks to the predominantly liberal NPR audience, but the candidates are already making distinctions. NPR was wise to make Iran one of the three debate topics, given yesterday's release of the National Intelligence Estimate.
Clinton's Revolutionary Guard vote sank into the background after the media got caught up with horse-race politics, but the NIE has pushed it into the spotlight once again. As Clinton notes, the vote wasn't about what Iran was doing inside its own borders, but rather how it helped Hamas, Hezbollah, and terrorist forces in Iraq. But no matter how much justification she gives, the candidates can always use a variation of John Edwards' counter: "Among the Democratic candidates there's only one who voted for the resolution; and that's exactly what Bush and Cheney wanted."
Earlier, Clinton said critique of the Kyl-Lieberman amendment has gone "too far."
Listen to the debate here.
-
sponsorship
Mike Huckabee returns to Iowa for the first time in 24 days today, and the time away seemed to do him some good. When news first broke that Huckabee was going to campaign outside of Iowa during the majority of November, a senior Romney aide showed me the headline with a pleased smile and a glimmer in his eye. Pundits cautioned that Huckabee was ruining his momentum in the Hawkeye State. But they were wrong: Huckabee's charm lingered.
So today he arrives in Des Moines to glowing headlines of his continued surge in the state. A glimpse back at the main themes of Huckabee's three Iowa-free weeks:
- Bump in the polls: When Huckabee left, Iowa polls had him trailing Romney by double digits. Now he holds a margin-of-error-proof lead over Romney. Romney, feeling vulnerable, has decided to hold The Mormon Speech in response.
- Aggressive endorsements: Huckabee picked up support from both Chuck Norris and Ric Flair over the past few weeks. College Republicans nationwide made pained puns about "hearting Huckabee."
- Advertisements: Huckabee compensated for his lack of face-to-face visits with two new ads, one touting his conservative and Christian credentials and one touting Chuck Norris' fist.
This isn't to say Huckabee had a stress-free vacation. His opponents have begun to attack his pro-immigration record. Ethical questions from his time as Arkansas governor have also begun to dog his campaign. But the attacks seem to have added fuel to Huckabee's rise.
Huckabee's success creates a dilemma. Does he spend the rest of December in Iowa, trying to make sure that Romney doesn't sneak back into first on caucus night? Or does he look past the state--at the risk of alienating caucus-goers--and try to make his candidacy viable in other early primaries? It's unlikely New Hampshire Republicans will flock to the polls to support a Southern Baptist, so Huckabee really needs to make a choice between Iowa and South Carolina. Given that he was still a dark horse just weeks ago, it's what you might call a high-end problem.
-
sponsorship
UPDATE 3:15 p.m.: I have to retract this entire post, which was wholly inaccurate. The Edwards campaign called me to rightfully inform me that the question in the conference call was about whether Hillary Clinton's support had peaked in Iowa and the rest of the country. They then responded that the "Clinton machine is very formidable, and that's what it is." I misheard the question.
I deeply regret the error. You can find full audio of the call here.
The original post, in strikethrough, is below:
During a conference call with the Edwards campaign this
morning a reporter asked an innocuous question: Does the campaign think Edwards’
support has peaked in Iowa?
Five seconds of silence followed. Finally, an Edwards staffer piped up. “Look, the Clinton machine is very formidable,
and that’s what it is.”
Way to be confident, guys.
-
sponsorship
One fascinating aspect of the antiquated, convoluted Iowa caucus system is that each candidate has to teach his or her own supporters how to, er, caucus. (‘Tis the season where caucus becomes a verb.) The state parties also hold training sessions, but for the most part it’s up to the candidates to make sure people know how it works.
So far, Hillary and Obama have led the charge. Hillary released a web video earlier this month called “Caucusing Is Easy,” that explains which forms to fill out and what to do once you show up to the caucus. “It’s usually over early enough to get back for your favorite TV show,” says one lady. Unless, of course, your favorite TV show is the Orange Bowl.
Obama, meanwhile, has recruited a team of 73 “Caucus Pros” to train first-time caucus-goers across the state. But given that Obama’s Iowa organization depends largely on mobilizing younger voters, it seems bizarre that the average Caucus Pro is 62 years old. (The youngest is a sprightly 41.) If it’s young bodies they want, why not have Amber Lee Ettinger run the training? Obama also has his own caucusing-made-easy site.
While John Edwards has no high-profile caucus training program, he does have two big advantages: One is the Services Employees International Union, which endorsed Edwards in Iowa last month and has 2,000 workers it can mobilize in that state on his behalf. The other is that the majority of Edwards supporters have caucused before, compared to about half of Hillary and Obama supporters, according to a recent ABC News/Washington Post survey. So on the one hand, he seems to have a less developed caucus training program; but on the other, Ed-heads already know how it's done.
Republican candidates have an easier a job, since the GOP caucuses are much simpler: Show up, talk about your favorite candidate, vote, and you’re done. There’s none of the complicated group-forming and re-forming the Democrats deal with. It makes you wonder why they don't just suck in their pride and call it a primary.
-
sponsorship
Rudy Giuliani got the memo about the importance of early primary states. He's just choosing to ignore it.
While Iowa and New Hampshire are crucial states for most Republican candidates, Rudy Giuliani thinks of them more as a nuisance. Giuliani's campaign told reporters today that they think Giuliani can lose the first three contests in the cycle and still win the nomination. They essentially conceded defeat in Iowa and New Hampshire to Mitt Romney, who has double-digit leads in the polls and has poured millions into radio and television advertising.
Instead of the traditional strategy, Giuliani is hoping that Feb. 5 is a second Christmas, one where he'll be given hundreds of delegates wrapped inside a Romney concession speech. According to his campaign manager and strategy director, Giuliani can come away with delegates from January primaries in Florida and Michigan, where he leads in polls. Then on Feb. 5, the campaign figures, Giuliani's popularity in the New York region will guarantee him at least the 200 delegates from Connecticut, Delaware, New Jersey, and New York, plus many from the other 16 states that hold contests on "Tsunami Tuesday."
This strategy borders on hubris, but it also wisely lowers the bar. If the press starts railing on Giuliani for poor showings in the first two contests he can just say, "I told you so." But can a national front-runner really set expectations that low and expect to stay out front? If Giuliani finishes fourth in Iowa to Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, and maybe even Ron Paul (gasp!), could his candidacy still be taken seriously? What if Romney, Paul, and McCain trump him again in New Hampshire? As a Connecticut native, I can tell you Giuliani isn't in for a soft landing on the icy streets of the Nutmeg State (where he called his lead "momentum-proof").
For Giuliani, his strategy is necessitated by disappointing polls in Iowa and New Hampshire. And to be fair, Giuliani has a real shot at winning South Carolina, where he's locked in a race for first with Fred Thompson and a surging Romney. But his explicit focus beyond Iowa and New Hampshire won't help his supporters in those states court new converts. Proof that Giuliani is thinking long term: He spends this week in Missouri, Florida, the Dakotas, and Washington, D.C. Iowa and New Hampshire aren't even on the schedule.