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What Was Edwards' Biggest Sin?

Back in June 2007, the three leading Democratic candidates participated in a CNN forum on faith. It wasn’t a debate—the candidates appeared onstage separately, and each one answered a different set of questions. Things felt more relaxed than usual. At the time, John Edwards’ answer to a question about sin sounded refreshingly candid. In retrospect, not so much. From the transcript:

O'BRIEN: Senator, I'm going to have you sit while I ask you another question, if you don't mind. Thank you. And while this is not exactly a confessional, there are a whole bunch of people out there—we certainly have enough clergy here—so I'll ask you this. What is the biggest sin ...

EDWARDS: I don't like the way this has started.

O'BRIEN: I know, sorry.

(LAUGHTER)

What is the biggest sin you've ever committed? Are you willing—are you willing to say? You can take a pass, sir, as you know.

EDWARDS: Just between you and me?

(LAUGHTER)

O'BRIEN: Just between you and me and the 1,300 people in the crowd.

EDWARDS: I'd have a very hard time telling you one thing, one specific sin.

(APPLAUSE)

If I've had a day—I turn 54 years old this Sunday—and if I've had a day in my 54 years where I haven't sinned multiple times, I would be amazed. I believe I have. I sin every single day. We are all sinners. We all fall short, which is why we have to ask for forgiveness from the Lord. I can't—to try to identify one particular sin that was worse or more extreme than the others, the list is too long.

O'BRIEN: I was going to say, it sounds like you're saying it's a long list. Senator John Edwards, it's nice to have you talk to us today. Our 15 minutes is up. Thank you so much.

Looking back, his answer sounds shifty. How, as his mind raced, could he not have thought of Rielle Hunter? But it also highlights a paradox of all this humble talk among politicians about their "imperfections." It's okay for a candidate to admit he sins multiple times a day in the abstract. But the moment the sins become concrete, he's pummeled for it. "Sin" covers everything from eating too many fries to murder. That's why it's such an easy question to ask and to answer. It sets up the faux-humble "forgive me, I'm human" rhetoric we hear on the campaign trail. But when things get specific—think Jimmy Carter admitting "I have lusted in my heart"—people get squeamish. When things get too specific—I have lusted in a Radisson hotel—that's when the punishment begins.

Speaking of Infidelity …

Democrats can’t be pleased with John Edwards’ confession that he had an affair with Rielle Hunter. It tarnishes the Democratic brand just as they’re gearing up for their quadrennial coming-out party, and the only thing more conspicuous than Edwards’ presence will be his absence. And Edwards could have a Mark Foley-like trickle-down effect in down-ballot races, where negative/positive party associations matter most.

But the news is not all bad for Democrats. First, Obama is pretty much soaked in Teflon when it comes to family matters. Second, it could be a lot worse: What if Edwards had actually won the nomination? And third, it introduces marital infidelity back into the conversation.

Recall: John McCain returned to the United States from Vietnam in March 1973. His wife, Carol, had been in a near-fatal car accident while he was gone. She was overweight, on crutches, and 4 inches shorter than when McCain had left. McCain ended up divorcing Carol for Cindy Hensley, his current wife. Carol has remained mostly silent on her marriage to John, except for one notable comment to a McCain biographer: “John was turning 40 and wanting to be 25 again.”

There were legal complications, too. The Los Angeles Times reported in June that McCain obtained a marriage license while still legally married to his first wife. McCain suggested in his autobiography that he divorced Carol months before marrying Cindy. In fact, that period was about five weeks. He also said that for the first nine months of his relationship with Cindy, he still “cohabited” with Carol. Social conservatives were never McCain’s base, but yes, it could get worse.

For the most part, the media have politely skirted around this episode of McCain’s life. (Not to mention other unflattering moments.) For one thing, it’s long past. McCain has since developed a reputation for credibility and transparency. (Post-Keating Five, that is.) And, unlike Edwards, he told the truth about his deviance. "My marriage's collapse was attributable to my own selfishness and immaturity,” McCain wrote in his autobiography. “The blame was entirely mine."

But with Edwards’ infidelity front and center, that could change. In recent weeks, McCain’s ads have taken a turn for the personal, comparing Obama to vapid celebrities like Paris and Britney. Now Obama is coming under increasing pressure to retaliate. The Obama camp has never publicly raised McCain’s marital issues, nor would it. But insinuation, coupled with euphemisms about “trust” and “commitment,” can go a long way. In an environment filled with personal attacks on both sides, you can bet McCain’s past will become fair game. The Edwards news even gives McCain’s detractors a convenient pretext to raise the subject. So you heard about Edwards ditching his sick wife? Wait till you get a load of McCain …

The John Edwards Affair: What Really Happened

The National Enquirer said on Tuesday that its reporters tailed John Edwards to the Beverly Hilton, where he was allegedly visiting Rielle Hunter. She’s the woman the tabloid has claimed is the mother of Edwards' "love child."

Major media outlets haven’t picked up the story as of yet, presumably because it doesn’t prove Edwards is the father. All it shows is that the ex-senator met Hunter at a hotel in a room reserved under the name of her friend Bob McGovern (whom the Enquirer claims was there with the baby), entered through the basement and took the elevator up so he wouldn’t be seen, and left at 2:40 a.m., only to be accosted and cornered in the bathroom by reporters.

I’m sure there’s a perfectly plausible explanation. In fact, I can think of several:

Edwards met Hunter, who produced videos for the former presidential candidate’s campaign, to shoot a new "webisode" for the series they started last year. This one was going to be about Edwards accepting Barack Obama’s offer to be his running mate. They had to meet in secret at 2 a.m. because Obama didn’t want the news to leak.

Hunter was planning to sue the Enquirer for defamation, and wanted Edwards, an acclaimed trial lawyer, to represent her.

Edwards wanted to confirm the baby was not his but couldn’t be sure until it started growing hair.

A local charity asked Edwards to meet with a single mother who had no health care and couldn’t earn a living wage. He had no idea it would be this one!

Edwards had come to return Hunter’s sari, which she had left the time he came to return her bomber jacket, which she had left the time he came to return her charm bracelet, which she had left the time he came to return her first edition of Pulp’s His 'n' Hers, which she had left on the campaign bus in Reno.

It was a setup by Barack Obama, who needed some new material for his stump speech on deadbeat dads.

It was a setup by Hillary Clinton, who is still determined to knock Edwards out of the Democratic primary.

It was a setup by John Kerry, who doesn’t want Barack Obama to make the same mistake he made.

It was a setup by John McCain, who hates anything to do with the Hilton.

Hard-Working White American Endorses Obama

Ever since John Edwards dropped out in January “so that history can blaze its path,” he has been careful not to get in history’s way. Even when his endorsement would have carried real weight—before North Carolina, for example—he was quiet. It almost seemed like he was going far out of his way to make sure his endorsement didn’t matter.

Well, sorry John, but it still matters. Not because it will change the race’s outcome—that was the point of waiting. It matters because it helps redeem Obama among the white working class.

The story line coming out of Obama’s West Virginia thumping is that white working-class voters abandoned him in record numbers, and for possibly ugly reasons. Clinton picked up 69 percent of the white vote, and of the voters who said race influenced their vote, 82 percent went for Clinton. No one thinks Obama’s 40-point loss was enough to derail his campaign. But it does raise tough questions about whether Democrats want a nominee with such paltry support among a potentially key demographic. To put it bluntly: With Kentucky just around the corner, Obama needed some white cred.

Enter John Edwards. By endorsing Obama now, Edwards isn’t handing him the nomination. He’s minimizing the damage wrought upon the all-but-inevitable nominee. Clinton insists a drawn-out election isn’t hurting the party. But it is clearly exposing huge holes in each candidate’s armor. By weighing in now, Edwards is reassuring Democrats—and perhaps telegraphing to Kentucky voters—that Obama is a safe choice.

Plus, Edwards is still influential. Just look at the 7 percent of the vote he picked up in West Virginia—impressive for someone who dropped out more than three months ago. If Edwards supporters in Kentucky take his cue and vote for Obama, it could tighten the margin of victory a bit. Also, cue speculation that Edwards’ 19 delegates will now swing to Obama, pushing him ever closer to 2025. (See Slate’s Explainer on what happens to Edwards’ delegates.) Expect renewed VP speculation as well, especially if Edwards paints himself as the man who could deliver the working class to Obama.

But Edwards’ endorsement isn’t the last round of battle; it’s the first round of cleanup. Both Democratic candidates insist the party will unite once a nominee is chosen. Edwards’ move tells party officials, more than any endorsement so far, that that moment has arrived.

Accepting His Fate

John Edwards has finally given up on the presidency. Even as he was standing behind a podium in New Orleans announcing his withdrawal in late January, we didn’t really believe he was done. Remember, this is the same guy who mounted a failed campaign to be the Democratic nominee in 2004, went along for a failed vice presidential ride, and got back on the saddle for a failed campaign in 2008. Moreover, after he fell on his face in New Hampshire this year, he kept on begging for the country’s vote like a spurned teenage lover. When a politician that determined to become president claims he’s dropping out of the race, it’s hard to take his words at face value.

But now we’re sure that he’s ready to slink away from the bustle and grind of electoral politics. After months of not endorsing either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton, Edwards said yesterday that he wouldn’t accept a vice presidential slot on either candidate’s ticket. After a rocky road with John Kerry in 2004, Edwards seems to have finally acknowledged what the American people have been trying to tell him all along: They don’t want him to be president. 

This is the culmination of a rough few months for Edwards. He abstained from leveraging his superdelegate star power for either candidate; his Iowa delegates deserted him once he dropped out of the race; and neither of the candidates has paid much lip-service to his poverty agenda. Now he’s putting the kibosh on his last chance to get back in the game—before anyone even asked him to play. If he doesn’t reinject himself into the conversation now he’ll be as dated as an episode of Temptation Island.

While he rattled off moribund stump speeches between New Hampshire and his withdrawal, we sat Edwards down on the Freud sofa and psychoanalyzed his candidacy. At the time, there were five stages to his grief: denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance. His recent no-VP comments show that he’s finally reached the acceptance stage. He knows that the only way he’ll be in the Oval Office is as an invited guest.

But just because he’s done with the campaign trail doesn’t mean Edwards is done with politics. Hillary Clinton announced that she wants a Cabinet-level “poverty czar” in her administration—a position probably created with Edwards’ endorsement in mind. If Hillary doesn’t sweet-talk her way into the White House, Edwards can always emulate a certain former vice president and become a Poverty Gore rather than a poverty czar. What Al did for the environment John can do for the poor. Hell, if Gore’s current status is any indication, more people will want Edwards to be president when he isn’t trying to become one.

The Kiss of Death

Over at Slate’s polling haven, "Election Scorecard," we’ve been poring over a new poll from PPP (PDF) that suggests an Edwards endorsement would actually hurt Hillary’s chances to win the state. A jarring 31 percent of North Carolina voters would be less likely to support Hillary if Edwards endorsed her. About one-third as many people (12 percent) say they would be more likely to vote for her after an Edwards endorsement. The poll didn't provide any numbers speculating what an Edwards endorsement would mean for Barack Obama.

These are really stunning numbers for a reasonably liked, homegrown senator who had a legitimate shot at becoming president. According to this poll, nearly one-third of North Carolina Democrats and unaffiliated voters dislike Edwards so much that he would taint Clinton’s candidacy. Barely one-tenth of voters like him enough to have it positively affect their opinion. 

The cynic would suggest that Obama voters sabotaged the question by saying an endorsement would hurt Clinton, but the numbers don’t completely follow that logic. After crunching some cross-tabs, we discovered that 35 percent of those Clinton-Edwards sourpusses are currently Clinton supporters. We’ll reiterate: Edwards is so toxic that one-third of Hillary’s Carolinian base would think twice before voting for her. No wonder he and Kerry didn’t win North Carolina in 2004.

We should caution that Edwards isn’t planning on making an endorsement of Clinton or Obama. With polls like these, maybe it should stay that way.

In Which John Edwards Decides the Democratic Nomination

It’s not going to happen. But here’s a hypothetical scenario that, however unlikely, could make John Edwards a kingmaker.

Saturday, Iowa Democrats will vote in the state’s county conventions. It’s a lot like the caucuses last January, only on a smaller scale. At 99 locations around the state, the 13,485 delegates selected at the caucuses will gather to choose delegates for the district and state conventions, which happen in April and June. Remember that in January, Edwards took 20 percent of the vote, which gave him an estimated 14 of the state’s 45 pledged delegates. (Iowa also has 13 superdelegates, bringing its delegate total to 57.) That means about 20 percent of the delegates showing up to tomorrow’s convention were selected as Edwards delegates.

These Edwards delegates have two options. (Well, three.) They can switch their allegiance to Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton, both of whom have been pushing hard for their support. Or, if they’re able to meet the 15 percent viability threshold, they can stick with Edwards. Presumably, many of them have switched allegiances since January, and others probably don’t know they’re allowed to vote for Edwards now that he’s out. But if enough of them back him, they could put his delegates—again, the equivalent of 14 national convention delegates—in play at the state convention on June 14.

And as the Democratic race drags on, 14 delegates is starting to look like a lot. The last primaries are scheduled for June 3. If the delegate count is somehow tied—a long shot, given Obama’s current lead, but still possible—then Edwards’ 14 delegates would play a major role. There's a certain poetry to Iowa bookending the election like that, no? (Or, if you're concerned about the democratic process, a certain perversity.)

Back to reality for a moment. The other reason delegates might stick with Edwards would be if they think his priorities, particularly poverty, haven’t been addressed sufficiently. It’s the same reason Edwards hasn’t endorsed yet: He’s waiting for one of the candidates to take up the cause with the same fervor he did. Until that happens, he has no incentive to pick sides. Likewise, the longer his delegates hold out, the more pressure they put on Clinton and Obama to take up Edwards’ mantle.

Trippi: Don’t Expect an Edwards Endorsement

On a Washington Post chat today, former John Edwards campaign manager Joe Trippi seems to hint that Edwards will not be endorsing:

John Edwards led on every single issue and pushed both Clinton and Obama on everything from the war in Iraq to Poverty. He has had an enormous impact on this election cycle and still will. I would caution that he may play a key role in bringing the party together by not endorsing -- that may not help him personally but it may be exactly what the party and the country needs.

Hear that? He will play a “key role” by not endorsing. Other leaders will look to his nonendorsement for guidance. Doesn’t Trippi know he doesn’t have to spin anymore?

Later, Trippi is a bit less decisive, “I really do not expect John Edwards to endorse at this point. Or I should say I would be surprised if he does. But then again he could surprise me.”

What Is Edwards Waiting For?

When Rudy Giuliani bowed out of the Republican race, it took all of five minutes for news of his McCain endorsement to leak.

John Edwards, by contrast, is taking his time. It’s been almost a week since the former senator dropped out of the Democratic race, sparking speculation about a possible endorsement. But with Super Tuesday polls opening in less than 24 hours, we’re getting tired of holding our breath. A former campaign official says an endorsement today is “highly unlikely.” What’s Edwards waiting for?

A couple of scenarios:

He doesn’t want to pick the wrong guy (or gal). The Democratic race is still up in the air. If Edwards endorsed a loser, he would risk lowering his already depleted cachet. Plus, who wants to lose a general election, lose a primary four years later, and then have your candidate lose the general after that?

He’s holding out for a better deal. Endorsements often come laden with promises of sweet Cabinet positions, ambassadorships, and other appointments. Or sometimes a candidate just wants certain issues prioritized—in this case, probably poverty and corporate greed. Maybe Edwards hasn’t secured the promises he was hoping for and is waiting for a better offer.

He doesn’t actually want to influence the election. In his concession speech in New Orleans, Edwards said he was stepping aside so that “history can blaze its path.” Perhaps he wants to let the American people make their own decision, without his help. 

He simply hasn’t decided who he prefers. You’d think that after a year of locking horns with these two, Edwards would have a fave. But the trail doesn’t allow for many intimate policy chats. Both Clinton and Obama have universal or near-universal health care plans; both want to reduce corporate influence in Washington; both have won wide union support. If Super Tuesday doesn’t produce a clear front-runner, Edwards will still have plenty of time to make up his mind.

What Happens to Edwards' Delegates?

We just recycled an old Explainer on what happens to the delegates of candidates when they drop out:

On Wednesday, John Edwards surprised pundits by announcing he was dropping out of the 2008 Democratic presidential race. So what happens to his 61 hard-earned delegates? In this article from the election season of 2004, Brendan I. Koerner answered a similar question about the end of retired Gen. Wesley Clark's bid for the White House.

Read the rest here. 

Fake Out

The first time I saw John Edwards in person was a book signing at a Borders in Washington, D.C. He was promoting his new book, Home: The Blueprints of Our Lives. As he spoke about the themes of home and family and home and family, I was awed by the man’s arsenal of platitudes. He could say nothing as earnestly and convincingly as I’d ever seen anyone say anything. It was the perfect introduction to his presidential bid.

There are a lot of explanations for Edwards’ decision to drop out. His opponents’ celebrity, his obsessive focus on Iowa, the limited appeal of his one-note populism. But you can’t discount his unbearable phoniness. Even when I agreed with the message, I bristled at the brazen insincerity —or appearance thereof—of the messenger.

How did Edwards get pegged as the fake guy? A few ways. For one, he said the same thing over and over. Someone compared him to one of those dolls with a pull string that spits out one of 12 different phrases. You could ask him if two plus two equals four, and he would tell you that Washington is overrun by lobbyists and this race is personal for him. His campaign in Iowa was like a political Groundhog Day—every event was interchangeable with the last. Even when given an opportunity to open up and show the “real” Edwards, he declined. In the Las Vegas debate, his response to Tim Russert’s question about his greatest weakness—that “I sometimes have a very powerful emotional response to pain that I see around me”—smacked of self-pity.

Secondly, even when sincere, he sounded like someone trying really hard to sound sincere. Back in 2004, in his vice-presidential debate with Dick Cheney, Edwards praised the veep for “the fact that [Cheney and his wife are] willing to talk about the fact that they have a gay daughter, the fact that they embrace her. It's a wonderful thing.” What theater. The moment was so clearly planned, so smarmily delivered, so thinly veiled, that even Cheney haters had to feel some sympathy. It was like if Hillary praised Obama in a debate for overcoming his coke habit. Cheney thanked Edwards for his thoughts and left it at that.

And third, Edwards got a phony rap because of the contrast with his 2004 persona. For people who got used to him as John Kerry’s cute puppy, the angry attack dog of 2008 felt like an act. In reality, things were more complicated, with Edwards reportedly pushing Kerry to be more aggressive. Kerry’s endorsement of Obama this month only reinforced perceptions that Edwards isn’t the man he was in 2004.

That’s not to say Edwards is somehow less genuine a human being. I’m told that when he goes off the record, it’s like talking to a different person. But the way he came across in public, or when filtered through news outlets, showed a man who repeated himself for fear of saying the wrong thing. He blamed the media for giving his rivals more attention, but never offered up anything but the same old shtick, which after a year of campaigning—let alone four—became tired.

Edwards added a lot to the Democratic field, and he will be missed. He challenged Hillary’s lobbyist ties more forcefully than Obama did. He took Obama to task for his “present” votes. He also exhibited refreshing maturity when Obama and Hillary put each other in choke holds, claiming to represent the “grown-up wing of the Democratic party.” Obama should take a page from his book (as long as it's not Home) and ramp up the intensity going into Super Tuesday. Edwards now has the power to influence the race in a major way. But he won't be remembered as the guy who transformed the 2008 election. He'll be the guy who was too slick by half.

Edwards Is Our Homeboy

If the presidential race were a sitcom, John Edwards would be the next-door neighbor who doesn’t take a hint. Nobody has the stones to tell him to stop stopping by, so he keeps on showing up with giddy smiles, predictable conversation topics, and a burning desire to be liked. Even though the main characters never seem to get annoyed with the neighbor, fans of the show tire of him quickly.

Earlier this week, it looked like Edwards might move out of the neighborhood. But that doesn’t seem to be in the script any longer. Edwards had only one goal coming in to tonight: get a delegate. And that’s pretty much all he did. Edwards didn’t add any momentum to his campaign, nor did he convince anybody else to vote for him after a dramatically short concession speech.

But honestly, it doesn’t matter how many delegates Edwards eventually gets. It just matters that he has some rationale to support his quixotic bid to become president. And as long as he’s still pulling in delegates, he can fight back against anybody that says he’s wasting his time. (Guilty as charged.)

If there’s anything Edwards can be proud of, it’s that he beat everybody else among white men, according to exit polls. Moving forward, Edwards would be wise to try to fill this void between Obama and Clinton, even if it means narrowing the scope of his candidacy. But at this point, his scope is narrow whether he realizes it or not. The only county he won in South Carolina was the one that includes his hometown, Seneca.

Now that we know Edwards is staying in the race, it’s time to play soothsayer for Feb. 5. The main question: Does Edwards siphon more of the white vote from Clinton or the change vote from Obama? Tonight, it was the former, but on Feb. 5 it could be the latter. In states with less of a black population, we could see a repeat of New Hampshire, where Edwards blocked Obama’s win. Either way, the longer Edwards hangs around the neighborhood, the more likely he outstays his welcome.

That Obama Dip

The chatter among political types is a new McClatchy poll released yesterday showing Obama’s support among whites in South Carolina slipping from 20 percent to 10 percent in the past week.

The obvious interpretation would be, Obama has somehow alienated whites, who must be gravitating toward Clinton. If this were the case, it would bode poorly for Obama on Super Tuesday, where white voters will dominate.

But the numbers suggest a different take. Obama’s numbers dropped among whites, but Clinton’s, at 36 percent, aren’t particularly high. Rather, it’s John Edwards who wins the category, with 40 percent support, up from 28 percent. If Obama has lost white voters, it appears to be to Edwards, not to Clinton.

Indeed, South Carolina voters appear to be gravitating toward their “own.” Edwards leads among white men. Hillary’s the favorite among white women. Obama commands a majority among black men. And the tie-breaker—black women—goes to Obama as well.

Yes, perhaps Obama’s radio attack ads hurt him among whites. Perhaps Bill’s loose lips hurt Hillary among blacks. But the way it looks, everyone is just drifting into their respective comfort zones.

Disclaimer: There are many polls out there. This is just one of them.

Home Sweet Home

SENECA, S.C.—There’s a traveling variety show traversing rural South Carolina right now, featuring Danny Glover of Angels in the Outfield, former Rep. Ben “Cooter” Jones of Dukes of Hazzard fame, Madeleine Stowe of Last of the Mohicans, and bluegrass superstars Dr. Ralph Stanley and the Clinch Mountain Boys. Oh, and some guy named John Edwards.

A big theme of Edwards’ campaign this week has been the media’s neglect. Against his “two glitzy opponents,” he gripes, his message of corporate greed and middle-class struggle doesn’t merit much attention. “When they take a good man like John Edwards … and remove him from the story, it is wrong!” Jones railed today. (Never mind that Edwards appeared on David Letterman's and Tyra Banks' shows this week.) So, he’s pulling out all the stops for what could be his last grass-roots bus tour.

At a community center here in Edwards’ hometown, Jones warms up the crowd with a good 20 minutes of jokes, political opinions, and Dukes of Hazzard anecdotes. Wearing a yellow hat with the words Cooter’s Garage in bright red, Jones reminds everyone that Edwards, unlike some people we won’t name, is no phony: “John Edwards is like that, 'cause he comes from y’all. That’s the way y’all are.”

What I'm seeing is identity politics taken to the extreme. Edwards isn’t just like these people. He is of them. Seneca is his. Never mind that Edwards has a jillion in the bank and a 28,000 square-foot house. This is a home game, with a crowd to match. As one supporter put it to me, “In Seneca, either you’re voting for Edwards, or you’re a Republican.”

Still, the senator fires off a few shots. He chides candidates (ahem) who “jet in, hold a political event, and jet out. … If they’re not willing to be here the week before the South Carolina primary, what are the chances they’ll be here after the South Carolina primary?” He derides the “bickering” that occurred at the Democratic debate Monday, joking that “I represent the grown-up wing of the Democratic party.”

But for all his fire, you can tell this is the beginning of the end. (Here’s that dastardly media bias creeping in.) Edwards will likely stick it out through Feb. 5. Heck, he might push into the summer. But retail politics is his specialty, and South Carolina ends the slew of primaries that can be won by shaking hands. From here on out, it’s a cocktail of momentum, advertising, and free media that decides the races. And Edwards is right that on that last count—not to mention the first two—his opponents have him beat.

As Edwards prepared to come onstage tonight, the room suddenly went quiet as Dr. Stanley sang his haunting a cappella rendition of “O Death” (the version made famous by the O Brother Where Art Thou? soundtrack). “Ooooo Death, Ooooo Death,” he crooned, as if he staring down the reaper himself. “Won’t you spare me over for another year?” Not exactly the kind of ditty you want on the campaign trail.

Minority Report

“What does that feel like to be a minority, to be a white male?” Tyra Banks asked John Edwards on her show. Edwards laughed, “It feels like you have to fight for everything you get.”

It was a joke, but at the same time a great rhetorical twist. Now suddenly Edwards is the downtrodden minority, just in time to campaign in the heavily African-American areas of rural South Carolina. 

Edwards has long played the underdog, describing his opponents as “celebrities” and reminding voters of his mill-town roots. But this is different: If he runs with the idea that he—not Hillary or Obama—is the anomaly in this race, maybe he can convince people that his would be the historic, plate-shifting presidency. Free campaign slogan: Make history; Vote for the white guy.

I actually wouldn't be surprised if the hey-look-I'm-a-minority joke surfaces on the Edwards trail in the coming days. It's a clever comment on the topsy-turvy nature of this race, and it gains Edwards no small bit of sympathy. But more importantly—and perhaps more insidiously—it reminds white Southerners that they do have the option to vote for a white male, and that it's OK to do so. 

Edwards Has a PR Problem

Thanks to the caucuses' arcane viability rules, John Edwards appears to have finished with only 4 percent of the vote in Nevada, but that's probably not the case. Edwards actually has 4 percent of the delegates assigned, not 4 percent of the popular vote. Edwards probably ended up with 10-15 percent of the popular vote, but that doesn't matter. The number that gets broadcast all over the country is that nasty and brutish number four. The same thing happened to Bill Richardson and Joe Biden in Iowa.

Edwards' campaign has to figure out how to spin a 4-percent finish into momentum for South Carolina's native son primary. It won't be easy. Edwards doesn't have much traction in the polls, nor much money to counteract dead-man-walking talk. Plus, Obama continues to dominate the anti-lobby, Americans-want-change vote.

Here's what Edwards can try to do: make a last stand in South Carolina's primary on Jan. 26. This sounds like common sense, but Edwards doesn't seem to be paying attention to that these days. He just gave his I-finished-in-third-but-I'm-not-giving-up speech in Georgia, not South Carolina. Georgia votes Feb. 5, which is more than 2 weeks away. Plus, it has a large black population, a demographic in which Obama trounces Edwards. Edwards needs a good-news peg before then, and the only place to get it is South Carolina.

We know Edwards is comfortable talking about mills, his daddy, and that he grew up in the Palmetto State. Plus, he won there in 2004. Just because Obama and Clinton look like they have the black and establishment Democrat vote locked up, respectively, doesn't mean Edwards should stop fighting in South Carolina. After all, he's best at that.

Obama's Entrance Poll Woes

If the entrance polls are suggestive of real votes in Nevada, Barack Obama has a big problem on his hands. Ms. Clinton, meanwhile, has reason to celebrate and wonder why all the hoopla over unions and caucus sites was necesasry. According to CNN:

• Seventy-two percent of voters surveyed were older than 45, and they favored Clinton over Obama.
• More female voters than male. Both genders favored Clinton over Obama, but women especially so (52 percent to 30 percent).
• Sixty-five percent of voters say this week's debate in Nevada played into their decision, and Clinton leads among those voters by considerable margins.
• Eighty-three percent of voters were Democrats, 52 percent of whom chose Clinton and 33 percent of whom chose Obama.
• The silver lining for Obama is the 12 percent of voters who said they were supporting John Edwards. Reason follows that they would go to Obama as a second-choice candidate, not Hillary, because of the two candidates' change messages.

Psychoanalyzing John Edwards

John Edwards is in denial. Sure, a new poll shows he may have a chance at doing well in Nevada this Saturday, but that pesky viability threshold of 15 percent will likely get in his way. His poll numbers in South Carolina are stuck in the mid-teens, and even a win in Nevada is unlikely to propel him very far. Plus, Edwards' spending is capped because he took public money to fund his campaign.

In the face of these daunting odds, is he quitting? Hell, no. He's soldiering on so he can help the American middle class rise up. After New Hampshire, he even said that he's in through the convention. Edwards' denial is only the first step in his five stages of grief. Here's what to expect as Edwards wills his candidacy on through his electoral grief.

1. Denial -Today Edwards' campaign had a conference call with reporters where staffers repeatedly said that two states (Iowa and New Hampshire) don't decide an election. The only problem: For him, they do. When you spend four years shaking Iowans' hands, it's a slap in the face if they turn their backs when it counts most. Also, on the denial front: a leaked memo (PDF) that says "Clinton is too corporate to offer voters real change" and "Obama is too weak to stand up to Republicans." Edwards blames the media and the "celebrity candidates' " wallets for his second- and third-place finishes. Estimated time span: Present - South Carolina's primary, Jan. 26.
2. Anger - Edwards has been campaigning with a fiery rage from the get-go, so his tone will only get harsher during this stage. Expect flailing attacks at Obama and Clinton in an attempt to weaken them in time for the Feb. 5 states. Because Edwards doesn't have as much money as Obama and Clinton, he'll have to make headlines by any means possible. In November, Edwards semi-famously said his attacks against Clinton were milquetoast, not mudslinging. This time, he may drag Clinton and Obama into the mud pit with him, critically injuring the party in the process. Estimated time span: Jan. 27 - Super, Super Tuesday, Feb. 5.
3. Bargaining - Assuming Edwards comes up short on Feb. 5, he'll try to stay relevant not by winning, but by negotiating. Because the Democrats award their delegates proportionately in each state, Edwards will certainly have some leverage that he can dangle in front of Obama and Clinton. Plus, an Edwards endorsement would mean a great deal if the nominee isn't sorted out after Super Tuesday. Obama is the most likely target for a bargain, which would probably entail Obama beefing up his middle-class/anti-lobbyist message in exchange for immunity from Edwards' scorn. Think of it as an implicit endorsement. Estimated time span: Feb. 5 - mid-March.
4. Depression - With the nomination securely in somebody else's hands, Edwards will probably fade from the political scene for a bit. He may not have officially dropped out of the race, but that doesn't mean he's in it, either. Symptoms include: decreased campaign schedule, monotonous stump speeches, and skipped primaries. Estimated time span: March - July.
5. Acceptance ­- At some point, Edwards will have to face the music, and it won't be played by Jackson Browne and Bonnie Raitt. There are only so many ways to crunch the delegate numbers and so many "Mill" ads you can run before you have to bow to defeat. This election, Edwards won't be the VP, but maybe somebody will offer him a new Secretary of Change Cabinet position. Something tells me he'll accept that.

Is Edwards Obama's Spoiler?

A question I haven't heard asked yet: Is Hillary's lead (and maybe win) John Edwards' fault?

The Edwards campaign has lumped Edwards and Obama together all week to try and ride Obama's coattails out of Iowa. By latching on to Obama's surge, Edwards may have siphoned some of this fabled "change vote" that everybody seems to be talking about. (After all, Ralph Nader did endorse Edwards.)

If that's the case, the Obama-Edwards fight we saw in Iowa may heat up all over again. And if Edwards really believes in change he'll pull out of the race to leave all of the change voters to Obama. 

What If Obama Loses?

While the Barack Obama coronation parade marches on, it's worth taking a breather from the Obama maniacs, devotees, and apologists to ponder what happens if he comes in second tonight. Sure, it may not happen, but what if it did?

1. Obama is only sort of screwed. The culinary union in Nevada will probably still endorse him tomorrow, and his colleagues in the Senate will probably still come out publicly in support. Plus, black voters in South Carolina will probably still vote, and probably vote for Obama. Note the number of times I had to use probably. All of a sudden, the falling dominoes that once seemed like a sure thing aren't nearly as wobbly.
2. Clinton is still sort of screwed. Clinton is still going to have a hard time competing in Nevada and South Carolina, which means the glow from her New Hampshire win may wear off by Feb. 5 (just like the glow from a New Hampshire loss may evaporate). And now there are rumors that she's strapped for cash (which we find hard to believe). It gets easier, but it's not a done deal.
3. Mitt Romney and John Edwards are definitely screwed. Romney has been grafting a bastardized, Republicanized version of Obama's change message on to his platform since Iowa. John Edwards is convinced that every vote for Obama is a vote for change, which is a vote for Edwards. He thinks this will somehow magically trickle down and help him once Clinton is out of the race. 
4. Crying will be the new nuclear option. If Hillary wins, then the press will need to attribute the shocking outcome to anything concrete they can get their hands on. They'll turn to 2008's water works. "The Diner Sob" will become legendary.
5. The press will have a meltdown. Chris Matthews will have to find a way to one-up his grandiose claims of what would happen if Obama won Iowa. Plus, he'll have to start being even more "obsessed" with Hillary. NBC News reporter Lee Cowan will have to find a way to stay objective, even though it's hard. Conservative writers (i.e. Andrew Sullivan, David Brooks, and the New York Sun's editorial page) will have to retreat back into their hyperpartisan corner.

Now, with rumors of record turnout and ballot shortages (which suggests independents are voting for a Democrat), this is all very unlikely. But, as Obama likes to remind us, so was a black guy named Barack winning Iowa.

We also have a breakdown of what happens if Hillary wins. Yes, there's a distinction.