Trailhead: A campaign blog.

Huckabee Dropped Out, Right?

Results from the last several Republican primaries force one to occasionally stop for a fact-check: Mike Huckebee did drop out of the race, right? Like, almost three months ago?

Or more to the point: Is anyone in the McCain camp worried that an opponent who called it off on March 4 is still winning 10 percent of the vote? Or that their guy is only winning about three-quarters of the vote, largely against defunct candidates?

With 100 percent of precincts reporting in Kentucky, McCain won 72.3 percent of the vote. Huckabee raked in 8.2 percent, and Ron Paul, who’s actually still in the race, won 6.8 percent. All told, non-McCain candidates won nearly 28 percent of the vote in the Republican contest. By contrast, Barack Obama won 30 percent in the Democratic contest. 

Two weeks ago, Huckabee won 10 percent in Indiana and 12.1 percent in North Carolina.

To be fair, the presumptive nominee doesn’t always receive overwhelming margins of the vote after the contest is functionally over. In May of 2004, John Edwards won 13.4 percent in West Virginia and 11.2 percent in Indiana, well after John Kerry had it wrapped up. Perhaps this is the voters’ way of notching their choice for a running mate?

And look how well that turned out for those two.

Romney's Big "What If?"

For those Democrats who worry that the protracted primary battle is exposing deep divides in the party’s base, Republican-style winner-take-all primaries are looking more attractive. For at least one Republican, the opposite is true: A Democratic-style primary that awards delegates proportially is looking pretty good right now. His name is Mitt Romney.

Several commentators have pointed out that, if the Democrats played by Republican rules, Hillary Clinton would hold a commanding lead in pledged delegates. (Democratic primaries mete out pledged delegates proportionally based on total votes, while most Republican primaries heap all their delegates on the winner.) Less attention has been given to the opposite question: What if the Republicans awarded their delegates like Democrats do?

To answer that question, Trailhead crunched the numbers from the earlier Republican primaries, back when Romney and Mike Huckabee were still in the race. We assumed that delegates are awarded in rough proportion to the candidates’ overall performance in the state. In reality, this is usually done on a district-by-district basis, but as we have noted on our Delegate Calculator, estimating delegates based on statewide results has a margin of error of only 3 percent.

Between Iowa and Super Tuesday, there were 17 Republican primaries that operated under winner-take-all rules (or something similar). In those states, John McCain won 649 delegates, while Huckabee won 110 and Romney won 105. Note that McCain averaged 36 percent of the popular vote, while Romney averaged 34 percent. The lopsidedness in delegates comes from the fact that McCain won big states like New York and California.

If we postulate a Democratic-style proportional system, McCain would have come out of Feb. 5 with an estimated 336 delegates to Romney’s 291 and Huckabee’s 164.

In the 12 caucuses during that same period, Romney considerably outperformed McCain, netting 188 delegates to McCain’s 55 and Huckabee’s 97.

So here’s the score through Feb. 5—two days before Romney threw in the towel:

If I were Romney, I’d be particularly bitter about California. He won 35 percent of the vote there to McCain’s 42 percent but got only 12 delegates to McCain’s 158. (The winner-take-all system is still done by district, so it appears Romney won at least a plurality in a small number of districts there.)

As the New York Times’ David Brooks wrote yesterday, the Democratic primary has exposed a deep divide in the party between urban, affluent liberals and more rural, working-class Democrats. It’s worth remembering that, just a few months ago, one of the guiding narratives in this election was how deeply divided the Republican party’s various factions were over who to support for their nominee. If the Republicans had a Democratic-style election process, those divides would be bitterly evident. It’s a strong testament to the role of election rules that we are now so focused on the other party’s identity crisis.

Why, Georgia, Why?

CNN hasn’t called the Republican race in Georgia yet—with less than 1 percent of precincts reporting, it’s tight between McCain, Romney, and Huckabee (just as predicted). But they can’t stop us from looking at their notoriously iffy exit polls! Hey, with 922 respondents, it’s about as reliable as a regular poll.

Nothing massively surprising here: The most churchgoing voters swung toward Huckabee. (Romney, interestingly, won more of the secular vote—those who said they “never” go to church—than anyone else.) Meanwhile, the voters who thought Giuliani’s endorsement was important went for McCain.

As for age, Huckabee appears to have won the youth vote pretty decisively, taking 41 percent of voters 18-29 and 37 percent among ages 30-44. Older voters are split between McCain and Romney. 

What does this say about the rest of the race? Hard to say given that we still don’t know who won. But it confirms that Huckabee is sucking religious voters away from Romney in a big way. If this is any indicator of what other Southern states like Tennessee and Alabama will look like, Romney has reason for concern.
(Watch him win it now.)