The SaddameterThe odds of war.

Four years ago, Slate published a Clintometer that tracked President Clinton's chances of being removed from office during the Monica Lewinsky scandal. This year, Slate presents the Saddameter, which monitors the chances of a U.S. invasion of Iraq.

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Chance of Invasion
Today: 58 percent

Inspectors land in Baghdad. Chief weapons inspector Hans Blix says if Iraq cooperates, no one has to get hurt. But U.S. leaks more war preparations, and White House says Iraq is already violating U.N. resolutions by shooting at planes patrolling no-fly zones. Peace spin: Iraq is trying to deprive U.S. of reasons to attack. War spin: U.S. will look for other reasons, and Iraq is too stubborn to eliminate all of them.

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William Saletan is Slate's national correspondent and author of Bearing Right: How Conservatives Won the Abortion War.

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