Into the BreachThe odds of war.

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Chance of Invasion
Today: 72 percent

Blix says omissions and inconsistencies in Iraq's Dec. 7 report need to be explained. He lists known weapons whose fate the report doesn't address, despite his prior warning that Iraq must account for them. ElBaradei says inspectors "have not gotten what we need in terms of additional evidence." U.N. official says the empty report means Saddam blew off the warning. Powell declares Iraq in "material breach" of U.N. cooperate-or-else resolution. Next step: To trigger U.N. approval for war, Iraq must fail to cooperate on the ground. Powell says U.S. will push for interviews with Iraqi scientists outside Iraq. Saddam's science adviser suggests this would violate international law. Peace spin: If Security Council members don't share Bush's judgment, they won't certify a material breach. War spin: If Bush doesn't like their judgment, he'll go to war without them.

Yesterday: 66 percent

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William Saletan is Slate's national correspondent and author of Bearing Right: How Conservatives Won the Abortion War. Follow him on Twitter here.

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