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saddameter: The odds of war in Iraq.

Coup Coup ClockThe odds of war.

By William Saletan
Posted Thursday, Dec. 26, 2002, at 4:05 PM ET

Chance of Invasion
Today: 77 percent

Formal interviews of Iraqi scientists begin. Iraqi official sees no need to take scientists out of the country: "We don't support or reject interviews, we leave this to the persons to decide for themselves." North Korea warns of war with U.S., but U.S. says it's just hot air. Peace spin: Saddam's generals will oust him. War spin: Not until "they hear guns start firing."

Monday: 75 percent

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William Saletan is Slate's national correspondent and author of Bearing Right: How Conservatives Won the Abortion War.
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