NevermindThe odds of war.

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Chance of Invasion
Today: 68 percent

Bush says Iraq's "false" Dec. 7 WMD report indicates Saddam won't disarm. Bush voices skepticism about interviews of Iraqi scientists because "there's a minder in the room." Turkey withholds war aid decision until inspectors report to Security Council on Jan. 27. Inspectors say they've found no evidence of WMD. U.S. drops 480,000 leaflets telling Iraqis to listen to U.S. radio broadcasts, which say Saddam is living in luxury while his people suffer. Iran denies report of U.S.-Russian coup plot against Saddam. War spin: Nothing can convince Bush Iraq is telling the truth. Peace spin: Bush can't convince anyone else Iraq is lying.

Yesterday: 69 percent

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William Saletan is Slate's national correspondent and author of Bearing Right: How Conservatives Won the Abortion War. Follow him on Twitter here.

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