Watching the DetectivesThe odds of war.

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Chance of Invasion
Today: 69 percent

Saddam accuses inspectors of "making lists of Iraqi scientists, [asking] questions that carry hidden agendas, giving special attention to military camps … most of which constitute purely intelligence work." Turkish foreign minister says Turkey probably won't accept many U.S. troops. New Security Council member Pakistan indicates sympathy with U.S.; Council diplomat says Germans "are indicating that they will not be an obstacle to military action if the facts … show that Saddam is cheating." New York Times reports U.S. still "has yet to fully share what intelligence it has with the inspectors." U.S. hints at amnesty for Iraqi officials who help topple Saddam. Buildup continues, but British officials estimate odds of war have fallen from 60-40 to 40-60. War spin: Saddam is cracking under the pressure. Peace spin: Not enough to stop cooperating.

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William Saletan is Slate's national correspondent and author of Bearing Right: How Conservatives Won the Abortion War. Follow him on Twitter here.

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