Brake DownThe odds of war.

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Chance of Invasion
Today: 62 percent

ElBaradei asks U.S. for "more actionable information" but doubts inspectors will know enough by Jan. 27 to help Security Council decide on war. U.S. backs away from January-February decision timetable; State Dept. official says, "We have to exhaust the U.N. process to get people to come through with military and other support." European Union foreign policy chief says war can't begin without clear evidence of Iraqi WMD. Saudis reportedly lead Arab talks on how to get Saddam to step down, willingly or not. Libya denies report that it might host Saddam in exile if he steps down. Peace spin: U.S. is slowing down because the war coalition is disintegrating. War spin: U.S. is slowing down to keep the war coalition from disintegrating.

Yesterday: 63 percent

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William Saletan is Slate's national correspondent and author of Bearing Right: How Conservatives Won the Abortion War. Follow him on Twitter here.

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