Powell MovementThe odds of war.

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Chance of Invasion
Today: 95 percent

Powell presents U.S. intelligence to Security Council. Members buy the evidence and agree that Iraq's current level of cooperation is inadequate, providing international cover for a U.S.-led war coalition. Most want to continue inspections, but none threatens to veto a use-of-force resolution.

Yesterday: 91 percent

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William Saletan is Slate's national correspondent and author of Bearing Right: How Conservatives Won the Abortion War. Follow him on Twitter here.

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