Atta TurkThe odds of war.

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Chance of Invasion
Today: 94 percent

Powell says U.S.-Iraq showdown will end "one way or another" within "weeks." Turkish parliament votes to let U.S. prepare bases for war, but Turkish leader says U.S. must stay "within the U.N. framework." NATO approves U.S. military plan to protect Turkey. ElBaradei says Iraqis "need to show drastic change in terms of cooperation." Iraq says one of its scientists gave inspectors a private interview. Chirac says Powell's U.N. presentation didn't sway France. Peace spin: Iraq will use upcoming visit by Blix and ElBaradei to offer concessions. War spin: Too little, too late.

Yesterday: 95 percent

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William Saletan is Slate's national correspondent and author of Bearing Right: How Conservatives Won the Abortion War. Follow him on Twitter here.

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