Too Little. Too Late?The odds of war.

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Chance of Invasion
Today: 95 percent

Blix says Iraq's latest move—a scientist's submission to an inspector interview without an Iraqi government minder—isn't enough. ElBaradei says Iraq must make big concessions before he and Blix arrive for talks on Feb. 14. Britain will reportedly introduce a war resolution after those talks. Russia sees no grounds for a war resolution but says Iraq "must provide materials proving that it had dismantled the weapons it had." Poland closes the U.S. interest section in Poland's Baghdad embassy at U.S. request. Peace spin: Iraq will give more ground. War spin: Not soon enough.

Yesterday: 94 percent

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William Saletan is Slate's national correspondent and author of Bearing Right: How Conservatives Won the Abortion War. Follow him on Twitter here.

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