U-2 May Be a WinnerThe odds of war.

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Chance of Invasion
Today: 94 percent

Iraq yields to inspectors' demands for U-2 flights and a domestic Iraqi ban on WMD. China rhetorically joins French-German-Russian axis for inspections instead of war. German source says 11 of 15 Security Council members favor extending inspections. Putin indicates Russia would veto "an unreasonable use of force." In worst PR move since Willie Horton endorsed Michael Dukakis, Bin Laden urges Muslims to defend Iraq.

Yesterday: 97 percent

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William Saletan is Slate's national correspondent and author of Bearing Right: How Conservatives Won the Abortion War. Follow him on Twitter here.

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