Cold TurkeyThe odds of war.

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Chance of Invasion
Today: 92 percent

Huge demonstrations in London, Rome, and elsewhere cause media to question steadiness of U.S. allies. Turkey gets cold feet over accepting troops. Peace spin: If U.N. balks, Turkey won't help. War spin: If U.N. balks, Turkey wants a bigger bribe. U.S. wins NATO aid to Turkey without requirement that Security Council must approve war. France fails to add EU to its anti-war coalition. U.S. plans new resolution listing steps Iraq must take before March 1 council meeting, including destruction of missiles with excess range. Annan warns Iraq not to make council feel "we're just wasting our time and we should call a halt to the inspections."

Friday: 94 percent

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William Saletan is Slate's national correspondent and author of Bearing Right: How Conservatives Won the Abortion War. Follow him on Twitter here.

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