Chicken JacquesThe odds of war.

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Chance of Invasion
Today: 92 percent

Turkey gets NATO aid but bars U.S. troops until Bush beefs up "compensation" offer. Fleischer's reply: 1) Take it or leave it. 2) We can win without you. Powell in French interview: "Some nations are afraid of stepping up to the responsibility of imposing the will of the international community." Berlusconi, like Blair, stands by Bush despite domestic protests. Italian lawmakers vote to support him. "Shipping industry sources" tell London's Independent three ships being tracked by U.S. and Britain may be carrying Iraqi WMD. Latest C.W.: U.S. will postpone Security Council resolution until Blix's end-of-February report, hoping it'll be negative enough to increase support for war.

Yesterday: 92 percent

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William Saletan is Slate's national correspondent and author of Bearing Right: How Conservatives Won the Abortion War. Follow him on Twitter here.

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