French ToastThe odds of war.

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Chance of Invasion
Today: 99 percent

France, Russia, and Germany reject British compromise proposal. Fleischer prepares post-veto spin: France "rejected [the British proposal] before Iraq rejected it. If that isn't an unreasonable veto, what is?" Turkish parliament will meet over the weekend to speed consideration of U.S. troop deployment. ElBaradei 1) urges Security Council to give Iraq a series of compliance deadlines with no war ultimatum; and 2) rejects British demand for Saddam's confession, because "We have no clear evidence he has things he is hiding for him to admit."

Yesterday: 98 percent

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William Saletan is Slate's national correspondent and author of Bearing Right: How Conservatives Won the Abortion War. Follow him on Twitter here.

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