Election ScorecardWhere the presidential race stands today.

FL
(27)

Nov. 1, 11 p.m. ET: Sunday afternoon, four of seven nonpartisan conventional pollsters since Oct. 21 favored Bush, so we gave the state to Bush. Sunday night, four of seven favored Kerry, so we moved it to Kerry. Monday morning, a new poll favored Bush. We narrowed the time frame and counted again: Of the five nonpartisan conventional surveys begun Oct. 27 or later, one was tied, two favored Bush, and two favored Kerry. Bush's margins were better, so we moved the state to Bush. Monday afternoon, another new poll came out for Kerry. That made the score one tie, two polls for Bush, and three for Kerry since Oct. 27, so we moved the state back to Kerry. We figured if one of the polls switched, we'd switch the state. Instead, as if by some fiendish curse, the tracking poll dropped into—yes—a tie. So now the score is two for Bush, two for Kerry, and two ties since Oct. 27. Ugh. Let's go back to the original time frame. Of the eight nonpartisan conventional pollsters in the field Oct. 21 or later, two have the race tied, three have Bush ahead, and four have Kerry ahead. It's a lousy way to award 27 electoral votes, but it'll have to do until the real voters speak.

Average Bush vote share: 47.7

Prediction based on vote share: Kerry wins.

(Read Slate's dispatch from Florida.)

Nov. 1, 4 p.m. ET: On behalf of Slate, we would like to thank Fox News for publishing at least one poll today that did not force us to move a state.

Nov. 1, 11 p.m. ET: We still don't like Bush's margins here. But Kerry slips a point in the tracking survey, giving us no reason to shift the state back to him. The score among nonpartisan conventional polls since Oct. 25 remains 5-2 for Bush.

(Read Slate's dispatch from Iowa.)

Oct. 31, 11:45 p.m. ET: Our rule of thumb here is that Gore ran 4 points better statewide than he did in the second CD, and therefore Kerry has to win the state by 4 in order to collect all of its electoral votes. His leads of 11 and 8 in the last two polls look pretty safe.

(Read Slate's dispatch from Maine.)

Oct. 31, 11:45 p.m. ET: Three surveys show Kerry at 49, and now Gallup has him up 8 points, lending further credence to the Star Trib and St. Cloud. The poll lineup is now 4-2 for Kerry with a decisive average in his favor.

Nov. 1, 4 p.m. ET: The Star-Trib holds steady.

Nov. 1, 11 p.m. ET: Zogby drifts back up toward the Star-Trib and Gallup. This state now looks pretty solid for Kerry.

Average Bush vote share: 44.5

Vote share prediction: Kerry wins.

(Read Slate's dispatch from Minnesota.)

Oct. 30, 11:30 p.m. ET: Bush likely. Wake us when Kerry shows signs of life here.

Oct. 31, 1:30 a.m. ET: Whoa! Consider us woken. Still, it looks like Kerry's best hope is a big turnout of people who answer automated polls.

Average Bush vote share: 49.7

Vote share prediction: Bush wins.

(Read Slate's dispatch from Nevada.)

Oct. 31, 11:45 p.m. ET: Bush ticks up in the tracking poll, but Kerry's still at 49. This state continues to look tight but locked in, with the incumbent locked out.

Nov. 1, 11 p.m. ET: Tonight was Bush last chance to show he could crack that ceiling in the tracking poll. He failed.

Nov. 1, 11 p.m. ET: Zogby's 10-point slide in two nights gives Kerry two leads in the last four polls. We'll leave the state in Bush's column because his margins are slightly better, ARG and the Albuquerque Journal have moved in his direction, and Gallup is on his side. But if he isn't nervous, he should be.

(Read Slate's dispatch from New Mexico.)

Nov. 1, 2:45 p.m. ET: Fox and the University of Cincinnati make the record of nonpartisan conventional pollsters 4-1 for Bush since Oct. 26. (We give each screening method a vote, not each sample, so we don't count Mason-Dixon twice.) Over to Bush it goes.

Nov. 1, 11 p.m. ET: All five nonpartisan polls released today favor Bush, and all but Fox have him gaining.

Average Bush vote share: 48.6

Vote share prediction: Bush wins.

(Read Slate's dispatch from Ohio.)

Oct. 30, 11:30 p.m. ET: Kerry by 1, Kerry by 2, Kerry by 3. Still nobody but Quinnipiac has come up with a likely-voter screen that can give Bush this state.

Oct. 31, 11:45 p.m. ET: Quinnipiac is no longer alone; Gallup puts Bush up 4 among likely voters. But look at the fine print: Among tonight's Gallup polls, this is the only state in which the likely-voter screen has reversed the outcome. Among registered voters, Kerry leads 49-47. And eight pollsters this month have Kerry ahead, including Mason-Dixon and the Zogby tracking survey, in which Kerry's lead has now grown to 5.

Nov. 1, 4 p.m. ET: Bush drops to a tie in the Quinnipiac survey. We're back to only one pollster showing him with a lead.

Nov. 1, 11 p.m. ET: All four other polls released today favor Kerry. This state is getting downright boring.

(Read Slate's dispatch from Pennsylvania.)

Nov. 1, 2:45 p.m. ET: Last night the score among nonpartisan polls begun Oct. 23 or later was 3-2 for Kerry. Today Fox makes it 3-3. Among polls begun since Oct. 27, it's 2-2. The average margin of the six polls is Bush by three-quarters of a percent. We don't even trust that, since Gallup's likely-voter screen has added 5 points to their spread. But we do find it interesting that Gallup's 3-point margin for Bush among registered voters matches the likely-voter margins found by Fox and Univ. of Wisconsin. Faced with a similar standoff a week ago, we waited a day before moving the state. A day before the election, we don't have that luxury. We don't feel comfortable keeping the state in Kerry's column when two of the polls on his side have him leading by 1 and 2 points with 4-point margins of error. The presumption, for now, leans every so slightly to Bush.

Nov. 1, 11 p.m. ET: Kerry's lead remains healthy in the tracking survey but slips a point, giving us no reason to shift the state back to him. Still a virtual tossup.

(Read Slate's dispatch from Arizona.)

(Read Slate's dispatch from Colorado.)

(Read Slate's dispatch from Missouri.)

(Read Slate's dispatch from Oregon.)

(Read Slate's dispatch from Washington.)

(Read Slate's dispatch from West Virginia.)