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Election ScorecardWhere the presidential race stands today.
By William Saletan, David Kenner, and Louisa Herron ThomasUpdated Tuesday, Oct. 26, 2004, at 7:40 PM ET
| If the Election Were Held Today | |||
| Winner | Loser | ||
![]() | 276 Electoral Votes | ![]() | 262 Electoral Votes 149 solid, 85 likely, 28 iffy |
Analysis Oct. 26, noon ET: Trouble for the president. He's trending down in the Reuters/Zogby tracking polls in Florida, Ohio, and Wisconsin. The map appears to be firming up: Nevada, New Mexico, and Iowa to Bush; Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania to Kerry. The back-breaker is Florida, where Bush has won only two of the last seven polls. One (Gallup) is clearly out of whack. If the other (Zogby tracking) drops again tonight without countervailing evidence, Bush will be out 27 electoral votes, needing Ohio and Wisconsin just to tie.
Update 7:30 p.m. ET: Tonight's Reuters/Zogby polls are out, and basically everything we thought was a trend isn't. Florida and Ohio did not slide further to Kerry. Nevada and New Mexico did not firm up for Bush. Minnesota and Michigan did not firm up for Kerry. The next state in danger of switching sides is Wisconsin. But that's what we thought about Florida today, and it didn't happen. We'll have the numbers and more for you in the morning.
How to read the tables: The following tables track the latest polls. The first table shows surveys in the most closely contested states. The second table shows surveys in states that are expected to go to one candidate but might be picked off by the other. In the left column, each state and its electoral votes are marked dark red, light red, light blue, or dark blue, depending on which candidate is leading in that state (red for Bush, blue for Kerry) and with what degree of certainty. Slate awards electoral votes based on our poll analysis, which appears in the right-hand column. We color a state gray if it's likely to split its electoral votes. New polls are highlighted in yellow. (A) means a poll was automated. (O) means it was online. (D) means the polling firm is Democratic; (R) means the firm is Republican.
The other tables below track national surveys. In the Trial Heat, respondents were asked for whom they would vote. On Job Approval, they were asked whether they approve or disapprove of Bush's performance. On Re-Elect, they were asked whether Bush deserves to be re-elected or not. On Right Direction, they were asked whether things are going in the right direction or are on the wrong track. On Favorable Rating, they were asked whether they have a favorable or unfavorable impression of each candidate.
| Tightest States | ||||||||
| State | Bush | Kerry | Nader | Margin | Dates | Sponsor/Pollster | Slate's Call | |
FL | 44 | 49 | 1 | 3.7 | 10/30-31 | FOX News | Nov. 1, 11 p.m. ET: Sunday afternoon, four of seven nonpartisan conventional pollsters since Oct. 21 favored Bush, so we gave the state to Bush. Sunday night, four of seven favored Kerry, so we moved it to Kerry. Monday morning, a new poll favored Bush. We narrowed the time frame and counted again: Of the five nonpartisan conventional surveys begun Oct. 27 or later, one was tied, two favored Bush, and two favored Kerry. Bush's margins were better, so we moved the state to Bush. Monday afternoon, another new poll came out for Kerry. That made the score one tie, two polls for Bush, and three for Kerry since Oct. 27, so we moved the state back to Kerry. We figured if one of the polls switched, we'd switch the state. Instead, as if by some fiendish curse, the tracking poll dropped into—yes—a tie. So now the score is two for Bush, two for Kerry, and two ties since Oct. 27. Ugh. Let's go back to the original time frame. Of the eight nonpartisan conventional pollsters in the field Oct. 21 or later, two have the race tied, three have Bush ahead, and four have Kerry ahead. It's a lousy way to award 27 electoral votes, but it'll have to do until the real voters speak. Average Bush vote share: 47.7 Prediction based on vote share: Kerry wins. (Read Slate's dispatch from Florida.) | |
| 48 | 48 | N/A | 4.1 | 10/29-11/1 | Reuters/Zogby | |||
| 48 | 48 | 1 | 5 | 10/29-31 | Insider Advantage | |||
| 49 | 48 | N/A | 3.7 | 10/29-31 | SurveyUSA (A) | |||
| 50 | 46 | 1 | 3 | 10/29-31 | Strategic Vision (R) | |||
| 51 | 43 | 1 | 3 | 10/27-31 | Quinnipiac | |||
| 50 | 47 | N/A | 4 | 10/29-31 | Rasmussen (A) | |||
| 46 | 49 | N/A | 3 | 10/28-30 | CNN/USA/Gallup | |||
| 49 | 45 | N/A | 4 | 10/27-29 | Mason-Dixon | |||
| 47 | 47 | 1 | 5 | 10/26-28 | Insider Advantage | |||
| 45 | 47 | N/A | 4.1 | 10/26-29 | Reuters/Zogby | |||
| 50 | 45 | N/A | 4 | 10/27 | Rasmussen (A) | |||
| 50 | 46 | 1 | 3 | 10/25-27 | Strategic Vision (R) | |||
| 47 | 48 | 2 | 3 | 10/23-27 | NYT Regional | |||
| 51 | 43 | 2 | 4 | 10/22-26 | L.A. Times | |||
| 49 | 45 | N/A | 4.1 | 10/23-26 | Reuters/Zogby | |||
| 49 | 46 | 1 | 3.2 | 10/22-26 | Quinnipiac | |||
| 46 | 49 | 1 | 4 | 10/23-25 | ARG | |||
| 48 | 50 | N/A | 4.1 | 10/22-24 | SurveyUSA (A) | |||
| 51 | 43 | 1 | 4 | 10/21-24 | CNN/USA/Gallup | |||
| 46 | 46 | 1 | 3.5 | 10/19-21 | Miami Herald | |||
| 47 | 48 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 10/18-21 | Research 2000 | |||
| 48 | 45 | N/A | 4 | 10/14-16 | Mason-Dixon | |||
| 44 | 45 | 2 | 4 | 10/10-15 | U of North Florida | |||
| 48 | 48 | 1 | 4 | 10/4-10 | Washington Post | |||
| IA (7) | 45 | 50 | N/A | 4.1 | 10/29-11/1 | Reuters/Zogby | Nov. 1, 4 p.m. ET: On behalf of Slate, we would like to thank Fox News for publishing at least one poll today that did not force us to move a state. Nov. 1, 11 p.m. ET: We still don't like Bush's margins here. But Kerry slips a point in the tracking survey, giving us no reason to shift the state back to him. The score among nonpartisan conventional polls since Oct. 25 remains 5-2 for Bush. Average Bush vote share: 47.3 Vote share prediction: Kerry wins. (Read Slate's dispatch from Iowa.) | |
| 48 | 44 | 1 | 3.7 | 10/30-31 | FOX News | |||
| 44 | 50 | N/A | 4.1 | 10/28-31 | Reuters/Zogby | |||
| 49 | 46 | 1 | 3 | 10/29-31 | Strategic Vision (R) | |||
| 49 | 49 | N/A | 3.9 | 10/28-30 | SurveyUSA (A) | |||
| 48 | 46 | 2 | 3 | 10/27-30 | CNN/USA/Gallup | |||
| 48 | 47 | N/A | 4 | 10/27-29 | Mason-Dixon | |||
| 45 | 48 | 1 | 3.5 | 10/25-29 | Des Moines Register | |||
| 48 | 47 | 1 | 4.0 | 10/25-27 | ARG | |||
| 49 | 48 | 1 | 4 | 10/25-27 | Research 2000 | |||
| 49 | 46 | 1 | 3 | 10/25-27 | Strategic Vision (R) | |||
| 50 | 46 | N/A | 4 | 10/23-26 | CNN/USA/Gallup | |||
| 48 | 46 | N/A | 5 | 10/9-22 | Rasmussen (A) | |||
| 51 | 45 | 1 | 3.8 | 10/18-20 | SurveyUSA (A) | |||
| 45 | 46 | 1 | 4 | 10/14-19 | Central Surveys | |||
| 49 | 43 | 1 | 4 | 10/15-18 | Mason-Dixon | |||
| 47 | 47 | 2 | 4 | 10/10-12 | ARG | |||
| 47 | 45 | 1 | 4.4 | 10/8-11 | Chicago Tribune | |||
| 46 | 50 | N/A | 5.0 | 9/27-10/10 | Rasmussen (A) | |||
| ME (4) | 44 | 52 | N/A | 3.2 | 10/28-30 | SurveyUSA (A) | Oct. 31, 11:45 p.m. ET: Our rule of thumb here is that Gore ran 4 points better statewide than he did in the second CD, and therefore Kerry has to win the state by 4 in order to collect all of its electoral votes. His leads of 11 and 8 in the last two polls look pretty safe. (Read Slate's dispatch from Maine.) | |
| 39 | 50 | 1 | 5 | 10/21-22 | Reuters/Zogby | |||
| 45 | 51 | N/A | 3.9 | 10/17-19 | SurveyUSA (A) | |||
| 39 | 42 | 4 | 5 | 9/23-27 | Strategic Mktg Svs. | |||
| 42 | 45 | 3 | 4 | 9/10-23 | Critical Insights | |||
| 44 | 48 | 4 | 4 | 9/8-10 | ARG | |||
| MN (10) | 45 | 51 | N/A | 4.1 | 10/29-11/1 | Reuters/Zogby | Oct. 31, 11:45 p.m. ET: Three surveys show Kerry at 49, and now Gallup has him up 8 points, lending further credence to the Star Trib and St. Cloud. The poll lineup is now 4-2 for Kerry with a decisive average in his favor. Nov. 1, 4 p.m. ET: The Star-Trib holds steady. Nov. 1, 11 p.m. ET: Zogby drifts back up toward the Star-Trib and Gallup. This state now looks pretty solid for Kerry. Average Bush vote share: 44.5 Vote share prediction: Kerry wins. (Read Slate's dispatch from Minnesota.) | |
| 41 | 49 | N/A | 3.7 | 10/30-31 | Star-Tribune | |||
| 47 | 49 | N/A | 4.1 | 10/28-31 | Reuters/Zogby | |||
| 48 | 48 | 1 | 3 | 10/29-31 | Strategic Vision (R) | |||
| 47 | 48 | N/A | 4 | 10/25-31 | Rasmussen (A) | |||
| 44 | 52 | 1 | 3 | 10/28-30 | CNN/USA/Gallup | |||
| 48 | 47 | N/A | 4.1 | 10/27-29 | Mason-Dixon | |||
| 41 | 49 | N/A | 3.1 | 10/26-29 | Star-Tribune | |||
| 47 | 44 | 5 | 4.1 | 10/24-26 | Humphrey Institute | |||
| 49 | 47 | 1 | 3.0 | 10/24-26 | Strategic Vision (R) | |||
| 49 | 46 | N/A | 4.5 | 10/20-26 | Rasmussen (A) | |||
| 42 | 49 | N/A | N/A | 10/19-26 | St. Cloud State | |||
| 47 | 45 | 2 | 4 | 10/15-18 | Mason-Dixon | |||
| 45 | 47 | 1 | 3 | 10/12-14 | Strategic Vision (R) | |||
| 43 | 45 | 2 | 4.4 | 10/8-11 | Chicago Tribune | |||
| 43 | 50 | 1 | 3 | 10/2-4 | Hart Research (D) | |||
| NV (5) | 50 | 45 | N/A | 4.1 | 10/29-11/1 | Reuters/Zogby | Oct. 30, 11:30 p.m. ET: Bush likely. Wake us when Kerry shows signs of life here. Oct. 31, 1:30 a.m. ET: Whoa! Consider us woken. Still, it looks like Kerry's best hope is a big turnout of people who answer automated polls. Average Bush vote share: 49.7 Vote share prediction: Bush wins. (Read Slate's dispatch from Nevada.) | |
| 50 | 44 | N/A | 4.1 | 10/28-31 | Reuters/Zogby | |||
| 49 | 49 | N/A | 4.3 | 10/28-29 | SurveyUSA (A) | |||
| 50 | 44 | N/A | 4 | 10/27-29 | Mason-Dixon | |||
| 49 | 47 | N/A | 4.5 | 10/23 | Rasmussen (A) | |||
| 49 | 47 | N/A | 4.1 | 10/19-21 | Research 2000 | |||
| 45 | 41 | 1 | 4.1 | 10/16-19 | Las Vegas Sun | |||
| 52 | 45 | N/A | 4 | 10/16-18 | SurveyUSA (A) | |||
| 52 | 42 | N/A | 4 | 10/15-18 | Mason-Dixon | |||
| 48 | 44 | 2 | 4 | 9/20-28 | BR&S/Las Vegas Sun | |||
| 47 | 45 | N/A | 5 | 9/23 | Rasmussen (A) | |||
| 52 | 43 | 1 | 5 | 9/18-21 | Gallup | |||
| NH (4) | 48 | 49 | N/A | 3.1 | 10/28-11/1 | UNH Tracking | Oct. 30, 11:30 p.m. ET: ARG has a tie, but that's an improvement for Kerry in their survey, which has always given Bush his best numbers here—unless you count Mason-Dixon, which has now demoted Bush from a 3-point lead to a 1-point deficit. The UNH tracking poll, which appeared to give Bush hope yesterday, has slammed the door again. 50, 49, and 50 for the challenger in three of the last four polls is pretty grim for an incumbent. Oct. 31, 11:45 p.m. ET: Bush ticks up in the tracking poll, but Kerry's still at 49. This state continues to look tight but locked in, with the incumbent locked out. Nov. 1, 11 p.m. ET: Tonight was Bush last chance to show he could crack that ceiling in the tracking poll. He failed. Average Bush vote share: 47.0. Vote share prediction: Kerry wins. | |
| 45.7 | 50.2 | 1.0 | 3.9 | 10/25-31 | Zogby/WSJ (O) | |||
| 48 | 48 | 2 | 4 | 10/27-30 | ARG | |||
| 46 | 47 | N/A | 4 | 10/27-29 | Mason-Dixon | |||
| 46 | 50 | 1 | 3.4 | 10/27-29 | UNH Tracking | |||
| 44.8 | 50.7 | 0.8 | 5.1 | 10/25-28 | Zogby/WSJ (O) | |||
| 46 | 49 | 2 | 4 | 10/26-28 | Research 2000 | |||
| 46 | 50 | 1 | 3.6 | 10/25-27 | UNH Tracking | |||
| 41 | 50 | 1 | 4.6 | 10/18-21 | Franklin Pierce | |||
| 47 | 46 | 1 | 4 | 10/16-19 | ARG | |||
| 47 | 49 | N/A | 4.5 | 10/18 | Rasmussen (A) | |||
| 48 | 45 | 1 | 4 | 10/15-18 | Mason-Dixon | |||
| 41 | 46 | 1 | 4.9 | 10/14-17 | Suffolk Univ. | |||
| 45 | 49 | 2 | 4 | 10/12-14 | Research 2000 | |||
| 42 | 49 | 1 | 4 | 10/3-4 | Franklin Pierce | |||
| NM (5) | 48 | 51 | N/A | 4.1 | 10/29-11/1 | Reuters/Zogby | Nov. 1, 11 p.m. ET: Zogby's 10-point slide in two nights gives Kerry two leads in the last four polls. We'll leave the state in Bush's column because his margins are slightly better, ARG and the Albuquerque Journal have moved in his direction, and Gallup is on his side. But if he isn't nervous, he should be. Average Bush vote share: 47.8 Vote share prediction: Kerry wins. (Read Slate's dispatch from New Mexico.) | |
| 47 | 48 | 1 | 4 | 10/27-30 | ARG | |||
| 51 | 44 | N/A | 4.1 | 10/27-30 | Reuters/Zogby | |||
| 49 | 45 | N/A | 4 | 10/27-29 | Mason-Dixon | |||
| 47 | 44 | 1 | 3 | 10/26-29 | Albuquerque Journal | |||
| 48 | 44 | 2 | 4.5 | 10/26 | Rasmussen (A) | |||
| 46 | 48 | 1 | 4 | 10/16-18 | ARG | |||
| 49 | 45 | N/A | 4 | 10/15-18 | Mason-Dixon | |||
| 50 | 47 | 2 | 4 | 10/12-14 | CNN/USA/Gallup | |||
| 43 | 46 | 2 | 3 | 10/1-4 | Albuquerque Journal | |||
| 45 | 49 | 1 | 4 | 10/2-4 | Hart Research (D) | |||
| OH (20) | 49 | 43 | N/A | 4.1 | 10/29-11/1 | Reuters/Zogby | Nov. 1, 2:45 p.m. ET: Fox and the University of Cincinnati make the record of nonpartisan conventional pollsters 4-1 for Bush since Oct. 26. (We give each screening method a vote, not each sample, so we don't count Mason-Dixon twice.) Over to Bush it goes. Nov. 1, 11 p.m. ET: All five nonpartisan polls released today favor Bush, and all but Fox have him gaining. Average Bush vote share: 48.6 Vote share prediction: Bush wins. (Read Slate's dispatch from Ohio.) | |
| 50 | 47 | N/A | 3.7 | 10/30-31 | FOX News | |||
| 49 | 47 | N/A | 3.5 | 10/29-31 | SurveyUSA (A) | |||
| 46 | 50 | N/A | 3 | 10/29-31 | CNN/USA/Gallup | |||
| 48 | 46 | N/A | 3 | 10/29-31 | Strategic Vision (R) | |||
| 50 | 46 | N/A | 4 | 10/25-31 | Rasmussen (A) | |||
| 50.1 | 49.2 | N/A | 3.3 | 10/27-31 | U of Cincinnati | |||
| 48 | 46 | N/A | 4 | 10/27-29 | Mason-Dixon | |||
| 49 | 48 | N/A | 4 | 10/23-29 | Rasmussen (A) | |||
| 50 | 50 | N/A | 2 | 10/20-29 | Columbus Dispatch | |||
| 48 | 45 | N/A | 2.6 | 10/26-28 | Mason-Dixon | |||
| 44 | 47 | N/A | 4.1 | 10/25-28 | Reuters/Zogby | |||
| 44 | 50 | N/A | 4 | 10/22-26 | L.A. Times | |||
| 48 | 47 | N/A | 3 | 10/25-27 | Strategic Vision (R) | |||
| 47 | 50 | N/A | 3.5 | 10/23-25 | SurveyUSA (A) | |||
| 47 | 49 | N/A | 4 | 10/23-25 | ARG | |||
| 46 | 50 | N/A | 5.3 | 10/17-21 | Scripps | |||
| 47 | 48 | 1 | 3.5 | 10/17-20 | CNN/USA/Gallup | |||
| 49 | 44 | N/A | 3.5 | 10/17-18 | FOX News | |||
| 47 | 50 | N/A | 3.5 | 10/14-17 | ABC News | |||
| 46 | 48 | N/A | 3.6 | 10/11-17 | U of Cincinnati | |||
| 45 | 49 | N/A | 4.4 | 10/8-11 | Chicago Tribune | |||
| 47 | 48 | 1 | 4 | 10/4-6 | ARG | |||
| PA (21) | 46 | 50 | N/A | 4.1 | 10/29-11/1 | Reuters/Zogby | Oct. 30, 11:30 p.m. ET: Kerry by 1, Kerry by 2, Kerry by 3. Still nobody but Quinnipiac has come up with a likely-voter screen that can give Bush this state. Oct. 31, 11:45 p.m. ET: Quinnipiac is no longer alone; Gallup puts Bush up 4 among likely voters. But look at the fine print: Among tonight's Gallup polls, this is the only state in which the likely-voter screen has reversed the outcome. Among registered voters, Kerry leads 49-47. And eight pollsters this month have Kerry ahead, including Mason-Dixon and the Zogby tracking survey, in which Kerry's lead has now grown to 5. Nov. 1, 4 p.m. ET: Bush drops to a tie in the Quinnipiac survey. We're back to only one pollster showing him with a lead. Nov. 1, 11 p.m. ET: All four other polls released today favor Kerry. This state is getting downright boring. Average Bush vote share: 47.3 Vote share prediction: Kerry wins. (Read Slate's dispatch from Pennsylvania.) | |
| 47 | 51 | N/A | 3.6 | 10/29-31 | SurveyUSA (A) | |||
| 50 | 46 | N/A | 3 | 10/28-31 | CNN/USA/Gallup | |||
| 45 | 50 | N/A | 4.1 | 10/28-31 | Reuters/Zogby | |||
| 46 | 47 | N/A | 3 | 10/29-31 | Strategic Vision (R) | |||
| 47 | 47 | N/A | 3.1 | 10/27-31 | Quinnipiac | |||
| 47 | 49 | N/A | 4 | 10/25-31 | Rasmussen (A) | |||
| 46 | 48 | N/A | 4 | 10/27-29 | Mason-Dixon | |||
| 48 | 48 | N/A | 3 | 10/25-27 | Strategic Vision (R) | |||
| 45 | 50 | N/A | 3.7 | 10/23-27 | West Chester U | |||
| 47 | 48 | N/A | 4 | 10/22-27 | Temple Univ. | |||
| 47 | 50 | N/A | 4 | 10/23-26 | CNN/USA/Gallup | |||
| 48 | 48 | N/A | 4 | 10/22-26 | L.A. Times | |||
| 49 | 47 | N/A | 3.3 | 10/22-26 | Quinnipiac | |||
| 45 | 53 | N/A | 3.5 | 10/23-25 | SurveyUSA (A) | |||
| 47 | 50 | N/A | 4 | 10/23-25 | ARG | |||
| 46 | 51 | N/A | N/A | 10/19-23 | Keystone | |||
| 46 | 49 | N/A | 4 | 10/17-23 | Rasmussen (A) | |||
| 46 | 48 | N/A | 3.5 | 10/17-22 | ||||

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