Election ScorecardWhere the presidential race stands today.

If the Election Were Held Today
Winner		Loser
	269 Electoral Votes 168 solid, 59 likely, 42 iffy		269 Electoral Votes 149 solid, 75 likely, 45 iffy

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Analysis Nov. 2, 2:30 a.m. ET: Our Electoral Scorecard compares the vote shares of the president and his challenger. It does not take into account the general principle, based on previous election results, that the president's share of the actual vote does not exceed his vote share in the final pre-election polls. How would that factor affect the outcome? The first table below lists 11 contested states in order of Bush's vote share. Theoretically, the deeper you go into the table, the harder it is for Bush to capture the state, given his current vote share. To win the election, Bush would have to take at least one state in which his average vote share is only 47.7 percent. If he fails to take Florida, he would have to win Iowa or Pennsylvania, where his vote share now stands at 47.3 percent.

Bush doesn't have to get to 50 percent in any state. He just has to get a majority of the two-party vote. The following table calculates what that threshold would be in each state if Ralph Nader and other minor candidates were to draw the same percentage of votes as last time ("2000 other"). This year's data suggest that Nader will draw far fewer votes, so the thresholds below are very conservative. Still, the table shows that Bush has met these thresholds in only two states, securing 246 electoral votes. To reach 270, he would have to win at least one state in which he is more than a percentage point short of the threshold. Here are the states in order of difficulty, as measured by the gap between Bush's vote share and the 2000 threshold.

Given the decline in support for Nader, we doubt that Bush's vote shares in Florida and Iowa will suffice this year. There's a good chance that his vote shares in Wisconsin and New Mexico won't suffice, either. So while our comparison of the candidates' poll standings yields an Electoral College tie, we predict separately, based on the incumbent's vote share, that Kerry will win between 276 and 291 electoral votes.

Previous analyses:

Oct. 28, 11 a.m. ET: We're back where we were a couple of days ago. Bush looks safer in Florida. Kerry looks safer in Ohio. We're skeptical of Kerry's chances in Colorado and Bush's chances in Minnesota or Michigan. Unless Bush gives back New Mexico, which appears unlikely, Iowa isn't enough to give Kerry the election. So our money is still on Wisconsin to decide the outcome, and the case for keeping those 10 electoral votes on Bush's side is weakening by the day.

Oct. 28, 12:20 p.m. ET: In this morning's Wisconsin analysis, we warned that we'd pull the trigger if one more poll showed the slightest lead for Kerry. ARG now has Kerry up 1. The state moves to Kerry, and with it (for now) the election.

Oct. 29, 12:30 a.m. ET: No sooner does Wisconsin slide to Kerry than Minnesota shows signs of sliding to Bush. While Kerry's grip weakens on Michigan, Bush's grip tightens on New Mexico. Unless Kerry wins Florida, the only state he could plausibly pick off based on current data is Iowa, which would give him 279 electoral votes--not enough to escape defeat in the House if Bush can take back the 10 electors from Minnesota or Wisconsin. Kerry must hold both of those states or capture Florida to win.

Oct. 29, 10:30 a.m. ET: Today's numbers suggest Kerry is in serious danger of coughing up Wisconsin or Minnesota. Bush is hanging on by his fingernails in Iowa, but he won't need it if he takes one of the other two states in that triangle and holds everything else. In Michigan and New Hampshire, Kerry looks safer this morning than he did last night.

Oct. 29, 12:45 p.m. ET: Some of you are asking why we haven't moved Minnesota to Bush. The answer is that we don't move states quickly or lightly. We're treating Kerry's grip on Minnesota the way we treated Bush's grip on Wisconsin: first a warning, then a test, then loss of the state only after the test is passed or failed. Filter out the partisan and automated surveys from Minnesota, and here's the sequence of candidate leads in October polls: Kerry, Kerry, Bush, Kerry, Bush, and a tracking poll that was in Kerry territory for three days before dipping 1 point into Bush territory last night. In Wisconsin, we refused to move the state until 1) Kerry held his lead in the same tracking poll for a second day, and 2) another nonpartisan conventional poll showed Kerry ahead. Same goes for Bush in Minnesota.

Oct. 29, 8:45 p.m. ET: Tonight's Zogby polls are out. We'll have them in the tables shortly, but we can tell you from a glance that they indicate an alarming pattern for the president. He's at 51 percent in Nevada and New Mexico. He's at 48 in Michigan and 47 in Colorado. But in Ohio, he's at 46. In Florida, Iowa, and Wisconsin, he's at 45. In Pennsylvania, he's at 44. In Minnesota, he's at 43. Even if you take into account the margin of error, these are frighteningly low numbers for an incumbent four days before an election. Bush would have to win every state in which he's at 46 or above in these polls, including Ohio and Michigan, just to tie.

Oct. 30, 12:20 a.m.: The addition of tonight's polls to current data puts Kerry in strong position to take the election. To varying degrees, he appears to have a firmer grip on Minnesota, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. He has a good shot at Iowa and an excellent shot at Florida. Michigan could be a problem, but the evidence for a Kerry win in Florida is much better than the evidence for a Bush win in Michigan, and the payoff is bigger. Maybe the Bin Laden video can put the president back on top.

Oct. 31, 12:30 a.m. ET: We haven't moved any states since Thursday, but looking over previous polling and the data of the last two nights, we think we see three states separating from the rest. Several of the states we've been watching closely—let's call them Tier 1--are pretty consistently going to one candidate or the other: Nevada, New Mexico, and Iowa to Bush; Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Hampshire, and now Wisconsin to Kerry. Of these, only Wisconsin and Iowa show signs of vulnerability. Florida, Ohio, and Minnesota have not settled into such a pattern. In those three states—let's call them Tier 2--polls are far from agreement. Our tentative theory is that these are the states in which poll results are most influenced by variations among likely-voter screens. To put it another way, these are the states in which turnout will most certainly decide who wins. If the Tier 1 states are distributed as current data suggest, then the election reduces to a simple equation. Whichever candidate takes two of the Tier 2 states is the next president.

Oct. 31, 1:45 a.m. ET: The Star-Tribune becomes the third Minnesota polling outlet in the last 11 days to show Kerry at 49 with a comfortable lead. Only two nonpartisan, non-automated surveys have found Bush ahead, by 1 and 3 points, respectively. The five polls average out to Kerry 47.6, Bush 44.8. You can make a good case that Minnesota is falling into Tier 1 on Kerry's side. That would leave Bush with the job of winning both Florida and Ohio--or packing his bags for Crawford.

Oct. 31, 10:00 a.m. ET: New polls out in four states. One has New Mexico closer than Bush would like, but still his. Two others have Michigan and New Jersey closer than Kerry would like, but still his. The surprise is Iowa, where Bush had led in six of seven surveys before today's Des Moines Register poll showed Kerry up 48-45. Taking Iowa wouldn't spare Kerry the need to win Ohio or Florida. But if he wins Ohio, Iowa would insure him against the loss of both Hawaii and New Hampshire. And if he wins Florida, Iowa would insure him against the loss of Minnesota or Wisconsin.

Nov. 1, 1:00 a.m. ET: Florida moves to Kerry, giving him 299 electoral votes. But his lead is shakier than it looks. Both Florida and Ohio are on a knife's edge. We also think Gallup has exposed Wisconsin as a Tier 2 state, winnable for Bush with the right turnout. Kerry's consolation is that both Iowa and New Mexico now look winnable for him, and as a package, they would negate the loss of Wisconsin or Minnesota. Kerry can now afford to lose any of the following combinations: 1) Florida, Iowa, and New Mexico; 2) Florida, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire; 3) Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Hampshire; 4) Ohio and Pennsylvania; or 5) Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania. The good news for Republicans is that even if Kerry wins all the other states within his reach, he can't survive the loss of Ohio and Florida.

Nov. 1, noon ET: Last night we warned that Florida and Ohio were on a knife's edge and that Kerry could not survive if he lost both. This morning we got two polls that nudged both states ever so slightly back to Bush. The only reason we've had these states leaning one way or the other in the last 24 hours is that we decided at the outset of this project to allocate even the iffiest states. When you look at all the data, Florida and Ohio are tossups. By favoring one criterion over another, you can make a solid argument for either candidate in either state. Last night the weight of evidence was heavier for Kerry by three ounces. Today it's heavier for Bush by two ounces. We warned last night not to make too much of Kerry's 299. We'll warn now not to make too much of Bush's 286. Here is the math that matters: If all the states in which the data lean discernibly to either candidate vote as the polls suggest, the election will come down to Florida and Ohio. If Bush takes both, he wins. If Kerry takes either, he wins. We assess the probability in each state independently, and we assume that neither state's turnout affects the other's. Since the odds in each of the two states are approximately 50-50, with a tiny edge to Bush, the combined probability of Kerry winning the election is about 70 to 75 percent.

Nov. 1, 2:45 p.m. ET: You'd think that since polls are published daily, analysis based on them would last more than a couple of hours. But you'd be wrong. Last night we got a new poll and moved Florida to Kerry. This morning we got another new poll and moved it back to Bush. Guess what? We've got a third poll now, and—oh, what's the point of explaining any more. The balance of evidence in Florida is back on Kerry's side. But fear not, Republicans. Another new poll has arrived in Wisconsin, tilting the balance of evidence in that state by the teensy-weensiest margin to Bush. The result, appropriately, is a tie, which sends the election to the House, where Bush wins. And if you don't like that projection, just wait an hour.

Nov. 1, 11 p.m. ET: We haven't been this excited in days. The final evening's batch of polls has come out, and we're moving … nothing! What a relief after the craziness of the last 24 hours. Based on the closeness of the evidence, the three states most likely to shift tomorrow are Florida, Wisconsin, and New Mexico. If Florida stays put and Wisconsin or New Mexico moves, Kerry wins. Otherwise, Bush wins. It's that simple—assuming, of course, that no other state surprises us …

How to read the tables: The following tables track the latest polls. The first table shows surveys in the most closely contested states. The second table shows surveys in states that are expected to go to one candidate but might be picked off by the other. In the left column, each state and its electoral votes are marked dark red, light red, light blue, or dark blue, depending on which candidate is leading in that state (red for Bush, blue for Kerry) and with what degree of certainty. Slate awards electoral votes based on our poll analysis, which appears in the right-hand column. We color a state gray if it's likely to split its electoral votes. New polls are highlighted in yellow. (A) means a poll was automated. (O) means it was online. (D) means the polling firm is Democratic; (R) means the firm is Republican.

The other tables below track national surveys. In the Trial Heat, respondents were asked for whom they would vote. On Job Approval, they were asked whether they approve or disapprove of Bush's performance. On Re-Elect, they were asked whether Bush deserves to be re-elected or not. On Right Direction, they were asked whether things are going in the right direction or are on the wrong track. On Favorable Rating, they were asked whether they have a favorable or unfavorable impression of each candidate.

Tightest States
State	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Margin	Dates	Sponsor/Pollster	Slate's Call
FL (27)	44	49	1	3.7	10/30-31	FOX News	Nov. 1, 11 p.m. ET: Sunday afternoon, four of seven nonpartisan conventional pollsters since Oct. 21 favored Bush, so we gave the state to Bush. Sunday night, four of seven favored Kerry, so we moved it to Kerry. Monday morning, a new poll favored Bush. We narrowed the time frame and counted again: Of the five nonpartisan conventional surveys begun Oct. 27 or later, one was tied, two favored Bush, and two favored Kerry. Bush's margins were better, so we moved the state to Bush. Monday afternoon, another new poll came out for Kerry. That made the score one tie, two polls for Bush, and three for Kerry since Oct. 27, so we moved the state back to Kerry. We figured if one of the polls switched, we'd switch the state. Instead, as if by some fiendish curse, the tracking poll dropped into—yes—a tie. So now the score is two for Bush, two for Kerry, and two ties since Oct. 27. Ugh. Let's go back to the original time frame. Of the eight nonpartisan conventional pollsters in the field Oct. 21 or later, two have the race tied, three have Bush ahead, and four have Kerry ahead. It's a lousy way to award 27 electoral votes, but it'll have to do until the real voters speak. Average Bush vote share: 47.7 Prediction based on vote share: Kerry wins. (Read Slate's dispatch from Florida.)
	48	48	N/A	4.1	10/29-11/1	Reuters/Zogby
	48	48	1	5	10/29-31	Insider Advantage
	49	48	N/A	3.7	10/29-31	SurveyUSA (A)
	50	46	1	3	10/29-31	Strategic Vision (R)
	51	43	1	3	10/27-31	Quinnipiac
	50	47	N/A	4	10/29-31	Rasmussen (A)
	46	49	N/A	3	10/28-30	CNN/USA/Gallup
	49	45	N/A	4	10/27-29	Mason-Dixon
	47	47	1	5	10/26-28	Insider Advantage
	45	47	N/A	4.1	10/26-29	Reuters/Zogby
	50	45	N/A	4	10/27	Rasmussen (A)
	50	46	1	3	10/25-27	Strategic Vision (R)
	47	48	2	3	10/23-27	NYT Regional
	51	43	2	4	10/22-26	L.A. Times
	49	45	N/A	4.1	10/23-26	Reuters/Zogby
	49	46	1	3.2	10/22-26	Quinnipiac
	46	49	1	4	10/23-25	ARG
	48	50	N/A	4.1	10/22-24	SurveyUSA (A)
	51	43	1	4	10/21-24	CNN/USA/Gallup
	46	46	1	3.5	10/19-21	Miami Herald
	47	48	3.5	3.5	10/18-21	Research 2000
	48	45	N/A	4	10/14-16	Mason-Dixon
	44	45	2	4	10/10-15	U of North Florida
	48	48	1	4	10/4-10	Washington Post
IA (7)	45	50	N/A	4.1	10/29-11/1	Reuters/Zogby	Nov. 1, 4 p.m. ET: On behalf of Slate, we would like to thank Fox News for publishing at least one poll today that did not force us to move a state. Nov. 1, 11 p.m. ET: We still don't like Bush's margins here. But Kerry slips a point in the tracking survey, giving us no reason to shift the state back to him. The score among nonpartisan conventional polls since Oct. 25 remains 5-2 for Bush. Average Bush vote share: 47.3 Vote share prediction: Kerry wins. (Read Slate's dispatch from Iowa.)
	48	44	1	3.7	10/30-31	FOX News
	44	50	N/A	4.1	10/28-31	Reuters/Zogby
	49	46	1	3	10/29-31	Strategic Vision (R)
	49	49	N/A	3.9	10/28-30	SurveyUSA (A)
	48	46	2	3	10/27-30	CNN/USA/Gallup
	48	47	N/A	4	10/27-29	Mason-Dixon
	45	48	1	3.5	10/25-29	Des Moines Register
	48	47	1	4.0	10/25-27	ARG
	49	48	1	4	10/25-27	Research 2000
	49	46	1	3	10/25-27	Strategic Vision (R)
	50	46	N/A	4	10/23-26	CNN/USA/Gallup
	48	46	N/A	5	10/9-22	Rasmussen (A)
	51	45	1	3.8	10/18-20	SurveyUSA (A)
	45	46	1	4	10/14-19	Central Surveys
	49	43	1	4	10/15-18	Mason-Dixon
	47	47	2	4	10/10-12	ARG
	47	45	1	4.4	10/8-11	Chicago Tribune
	46	50	N/A	5.0	9/27-10/10	Rasmussen (A)
ME (4)	44	52	N/A	3.2	10/28-30	SurveyUSA (A)	Oct. 31, 11:45 p.m. ET: Our rule of thumb here is that Gore ran 4 points better statewide than he did in the second CD, and therefore Kerry has to win the state by 4 in order to collect all of its electoral votes. His leads of 11 and 8 in the last two polls look pretty safe. (Read Slate's dispatch from Maine.)
	39	50	1	5	10/21-22	Reuters/Zogby
	45	51	N/A	3.9	10/17-19	SurveyUSA (A)
	39	42	4	5	9/23-27	Strategic Mktg Svs.
	42	45	3	4	9/10-23	Critical Insights
	44	48	4	4	9/8-10	ARG
MN (10)	45	51	N/A	4.1	10/29-11/1	Reuters/Zogby	Oct. 31, 11:45 p.m. ET: Three surveys show Kerry at 49, and now Gallup has him up 8 points, lending further credence to the Star Trib and St. Cloud. The poll lineup is now 4-2 for Kerry with a decisive average in his favor. Nov. 1, 4 p.m. ET: The Star-Trib holds steady. Nov. 1, 11 p.m. ET: Zogby drifts back up toward the Star-Trib and Gallup. This state now looks pretty solid for Kerry. Average Bush vote share: 44.5 Vote share prediction: Kerry wins. (Read Slate's dispatch from Minnesota.)
	41	49	N/A	3.7	10/30-31	Star-Tribune
	47	49	N/A	4.1	10/28-31	Reuters/Zogby
	48	48	1	3	10/29-31	Strategic Vision (R)
	47	48	N/A	4	10/25-31	Rasmussen (A)
	44	52	1	3	10/28-30	CNN/USA/Gallup
	48	47	N/A	4.1	10/27-29	Mason-Dixon
	41	49	N/A	3.1	10/26-29	Star-Tribune
	47	44	5	4.1	10/24-26	Humphrey Institute
	49	47	1	3.0	10/24-26	Strategic Vision (R)
	49	46	N/A	4.5	10/20-26	Rasmussen (A)
	42	49	N/A	N/A	10/19-26	St. Cloud State
	47	45	2	4	10/15-18	Mason-Dixon
	45	47	1	3	10/12-14	Strategic Vision (R)
	43	45	2	4.4	10/8-11	Chicago Tribune
	43	50	1	3	10/2-4	Hart Research (D)
NV (5)	50	45	N/A	4.1	10/29-11/1	Reuters/Zogby	Oct. 30, 11:30 p.m. ET: Bush likely. Wake us when Kerry shows signs of life here. Oct. 31, 1:30 a.m. ET: Whoa! Consider us woken. Still, it looks like Kerry's best hope is a big turnout of people who answer automated polls. Average Bush vote share: 49.7 Vote share prediction: Bush wins. (Read Slate's dispatch from Nevada.)
	50	44	N/A	4.1	10/28-31	Reuters/Zogby
	49	49	N/A	4.3	10/28-29	SurveyUSA (A)
	50	44	N/A	4	10/27-29	Mason-Dixon
	49	47	N/A	4.5	10/23	Rasmussen (A)
	49	47	N/A	4.1	10/19-21	Research 2000
	45	41	1	4.1	10/16-19	Las Vegas Sun
	52	45	N/A	4	10/16-18	SurveyUSA (A)
	52	42	N/A	4	10/15-18	Mason-Dixon
	48	44	2	4	9/20-28	BR&S/Las Vegas Sun
	47	45	N/A	5	9/23	Rasmussen (A)
	52	43	1	5	9/18-21	Gallup
NH (4)	48	49	N/A	3.1	10/28-11/1	UNH Tracking	Oct. 30, 11:30 p.m. ET: ARG has a tie, but that's an improvement for Kerry in their survey, which has always given Bush his best numbers here—unless you count Mason-Dixon, which has now demoted Bush from a 3-point lead to a 1-point deficit. The UNH tracking poll, which appeared to give Bush hope yesterday, has slammed the door again. 50, 49, and 50 for the challenger in three of the last four polls is pretty grim for an incumbent. Oct. 31, 11:45 p.m. ET: Bush ticks up in the tracking poll, but Kerry's still at 49. This state continues to look tight but locked in, with the incumbent locked out. Nov. 1, 11 p.m. ET: Tonight was Bush last chance to show he could crack that ceiling in the tracking poll. He failed. Average Bush vote share: 47.0. Vote share prediction: Kerry wins.
	45.7	50.2	1.0	3.9	10/25-31	Zogby/WSJ (O)
	48	48	2	4	10/27-30	ARG
	46	47	N/A	4	10/27-29	Mason-Dixon
	46	50	1	3.4	10/27-29	UNH Tracking
	44.8	50.7	0.8	5.1	10/25-28	Zogby/WSJ (O)
	46	49	2	4	10/26-28	Research 2000
	46	50	1	3.6	10/25-27	UNH Tracking
	41	50	1	4.6	10/18-21	Franklin Pierce
	47	46	1	4	10/16-19	ARG
	47	49	N/A	4.5	10/18	Rasmussen (A)
	48	45	1	4	10/15-18	Mason-Dixon
	41	46	1	4.9	10/14-17	Suffolk Univ.
	45	49	2	4	10/12-14	Research 2000
	42	49	1	4	10/3-4	Franklin Pierce
NM (5)	48	51	N/A	4.1	10/29-11/1	Reuters/Zogby	Nov. 1, 11 p.m. ET: Zogby's 10-point slide in two nights gives Kerry two leads in the last four polls. We'll leave the state in Bush's column because his margins are slightly better, ARG and the Albuquerque Journal have moved in his direction, and Gallup is on his side. But if he isn't nervous, he should be. Average Bush vote share: 47.8 Vote share prediction: Kerry wins. (Read Slate's dispatch from New Mexico.)
	47	48	1	4	10/27-30	ARG
	51	44	N/A	4.1	10/27-30	Reuters/Zogby
	49	45	N/A	4	10/27-29	Mason-Dixon
	47	44	1	3	10/26-29	Albuquerque Journal
	48	44	2	4.5	10/26	Rasmussen (A)
	46	48	1	4	10/16-18	ARG
	49	45	N/A	4	10/15-18	Mason-Dixon
	50	47	2	4	10/12-14	CNN/USA/Gallup
	43	46	2	3	10/1-4	Albuquerque Journal
	45	49	1	4	10/2-4	Hart Research (D)
OH (20)	49	43	N/A	4.1	10/29-11/1	Reuters/Zogby	Nov. 1, 2:45 p.m. ET: Fox and the University of Cincinnati make the record of nonpartisan conventional pollsters 4-1 for Bush since Oct. 26. (We give each screening method a vote, not each sample, so we don't count Mason-Dixon twice.) Over to Bush it goes. Nov. 1, 11 p.m. ET: All five nonpartisan polls released today favor Bush, and all but Fox have him gaining. Average Bush vote share: 48.6 Vote share prediction: Bush wins. (Read Slate's dispatch from Ohio.)
	50	47	N/A	3.7	10/30-31	FOX News
	49	47	N/A	3.5	10/29-31	SurveyUSA (A)
	46	50	N/A	3	10/29-31	CNN/USA/Gallup
	48	46	N/A	3	10/29-31	Strategic Vision (R)
	50	46	N/A	4	10/25-31	Rasmussen (A)
	50.1	49.2	N/A	3.3	10/27-31	U of Cincinnati
	48	46	N/A	4	10/27-29	Mason-Dixon
	49	48	N/A	4	10/23-29	Rasmussen (A)
	50	50	N/A	2	10/20-29	Columbus Dispatch
	48	45	N/A	2.6	10/26-28	Mason-Dixon
	44	47	N/A	4.1	10/25-28	Reuters/Zogby
	44	50	N/A	4	10/22-26	L.A. Times
	48	47	N/A	3	10/25-27	Strategic Vision (R)
	47	50	N/A	3.5	10/23-25	SurveyUSA (A)
	47	49	N/A	4	10/23-25	ARG
	46	50	N/A	5.3	10/17-21	Scripps
	47	48	1	3.5	10/17-20	CNN/USA/Gallup
	49	44	N/A	3.5	10/17-18	FOX News
	47	50	N/A	3.5	10/14-17	ABC News
	46	48	N/A	3.6	10/11-17	U of Cincinnati
	45	49	N/A	4.4	10/8-11	Chicago Tribune
	47	48	1	4	10/4-6	ARG
PA (21)	46	50	N/A	4.1	10/29-11/1	Reuters/Zogby	Oct. 30, 11:30 p.m. ET: Kerry by 1, Kerry by 2, Kerry by 3. Still nobody but Quinnipiac has come up with a likely-voter screen that can give Bush this state. Oct. 31, 11:45 p.m. ET: Quinnipiac is no longer alone; Gallup puts Bush up 4 among likely voters. But look at the fine print: Among tonight's Gallup polls, this is the only state in which the likely-voter screen has reversed the outcome. Among registered voters, Kerry leads 49-47. And eight pollsters this month have Kerry ahead, including Mason-Dixon and the Zogby tracking survey, in which Kerry's lead has now grown to 5. Nov. 1, 4 p.m. ET: Bush drops to a tie in the Quinnipiac survey. We're back to only one pollster showing him with a lead. Nov. 1, 11 p.m. ET: All four other polls released today favor Kerry. This state is getting downright boring. Average Bush vote share: 47.3 Vote share prediction: Kerry wins. (Read Slate's dispatch from Pennsylvania.)
	47	51	N/A	3.6	10/29-31	SurveyUSA (A)
	50	46	N/A	3	10/28-31	CNN/USA/Gallup
	45	50	N/A	4.1	10/28-31	Reuters/Zogby
	46	47	N/A	3	10/29-31	Strategic Vision (R)
	47	47	N/A	3.1	10/27-31	Quinnipiac
	47	49	N/A	4	10/25-31	Rasmussen (A)
	46	48	N/A	4	10/27-29	Mason-Dixon
	48	48	N/A	3	10/25-27	Strategic Vision (R)
	45	50	N/A	3.7	10/23-27	West Chester U
	47	48	N/A	4	10/22-27	Temple Univ.
	47	50	N/A	4	10/23-26	CNN/USA/Gallup
	48	48	N/A	4	10/22-26	L.A. Times
	49	47	N/A	3.3	10/22-26	Quinnipiac
	45	53	N/A	3.5	10/23-25	SurveyUSA (A)
	47	50	N/A	4	10/23-25	ARG
	46	51	N/A	N/A	10/19-23	Keystone
	46	49	N/A	4	10/17-23	Rasmussen (A)
	46	48	N/A	3.5	10/17-22	Muhlenberg
	45	46	N/A	4	10/15-18	Mason-Dixon
	46	47	1	4	10/6-12	Rasmussen (A)
	46	48	1	4	10/4-6	ARG
	43	50	N/A	4	10/1-4	WHYY/WCU
	43	49	N/A	4	9/30-10/4	Keystone
WI (10)	45	50	N/A	4.1	10/29-11/1	Reuters/Zogby	Nov. 1, 2:45 p.m. ET: Last night the score among nonpartisan polls begun Oct. 23 or later was 3-2 for Kerry. Today Fox makes it 3-3. Among polls begun since Oct. 27, it's 2-2. The average margin of the six polls is Bush by three-quarters of a percent. We don't even trust that, since Gallup's likely-voter screen has added 5 points to their spread. But we do find it interesting that Gallup's 3-point margin for Bush among registered voters matches the likely-voter margins found by Fox and Univ. of Wisconsin. Faced with a similar standoff a week ago, we waited a day before moving the state. A day before the election, we don't have that luxury. We don't feel comfortable keeping the state in Kerry's column when two of the polls on his side have him leading by 1 and 2 points with 4-point margins of error. The presumption, for now, leans every so slightly to Bush. Nov. 1, 11 p.m. ET: Kerry's lead remains healthy in the tracking survey but slips a point, giving us no reason to shift the state back to him. Still a virtual tossup. Average Bush vote share: 47.7. Vote share prediction: Kerry wins.
	48	45	1	3.7	10/30-31	FOX News
	48	46	1	3	10/29-31	Strategic Vision (R)
	52	44	1	3	10/29-31	CNN/USA/Gallup
	44	52	N/A	4.1	10/27-30	Reuters/Zogby
	46	48	N/A	4	10/27-29	Mason-Dixon
	47	48	1	4.1	10/25-27	ARG
	48	45	3	4	10/23-27	U of Wisconsin
	49	46	1	3	10/25-27	Strategic Vision (R)
	50	44	3	4	10/16-19	CNN/USA/Gallup
	47	47	N/A	2	10/16-19	ARG
	48	47	2	4	10/14-19	U of Minnesota
	45	45	1	4	10/15-18	Mason-Dixon
	47	48	N/A	4.5	10/14	Rasmussen (A)
	45	48	N/A	5	10/4-13	Wisconsin Public Radio
	43	47	2	4.4	10/8-11	Chicago Tribune
	44	48	1	5	10/3-5	Lake Snell Perry (D)

Possible Upsets
State	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Margin	Dates	Sponsor/Pollster	Slate's Call
AZ (10)	56	41	N/A	4.1	10/28-30	SurveyUSA (A)	Bush pretty safe. Kerry's debate surge brought him within 5 points, but that's probably his high tide. (Read Slate's dispatch from Arizona.)
	50	45	N/A	4.5	10/26	Rasmussen
	47	42	N/A	4.1	10/19-21	KAET/ASU
	54	43	N/A	4	10/17-19	Survey USA (A)
	47	40	N/A	4	10/18-19	Arizona Republic
	49	44	N/A	5	10/7-11	NAU
	48	38	N/A	4.1	10/2-4	Arizona Republic
AR (6)	48	48	N/A	3.9	10/29-31	SurveyUSA (A)	Oct. 30, 11:45 p.m. ET: Bush safe. Mason-Dixon blows an 8-point hole in Bill Clinton's dream of making this the Comeback State.
	50.1	46.9	0.5	3.9	10/25-31	Zogby/WSJ (O)
	51	43	N/A	4	10/27-29	Mason-Dixon
	49.4	47.9	0.1	5.1	10/25-28	Zogby/WSJ (O)
	51	45	N/A	3.9	10/23-25	SurveyUSA (A)
	48	48	1	4.5	10/18-20	Arkansas News Bureau
	46	45	2	4.5	10/10-11	Zogby/Arkansas Democrat-Gazette
CO (9)	49	47	N/A	4.1	10/29-11/1	Reuters/Zogby	Oct. 30, 11:45 p.m. ET: Bush safe. Zogby joins the rest of civilization. (Read Slate's dispatch from Colorado.)
	48	47	N/A	4.1	10/28-31	Reuters/Zogby
	52	46	N/A	4	10/28-30	SurveyUSA (A)
	50	43	1	4	10/27-29	Mason-Dixon
	51	42	N/A	4.3	10/25-27	Rocky Mountain News
	52	45	N/A	4.1	10/18-20	SurveyUSA (A)
	48	42	2	4	10/15-19	Ciruli Assoc
	50	45	N/A	4.5	10/18	Rasmussen (A)
	51	45	1	4	10/14-17	CNN/USA/Gallup
	49	43	1	4	10/14-16	Mason-Dixon
	47	42	3	4.9	10/13-14	Rocky Mountain News
	49	49	1	5	10/3-6	CNN/USA
HI (4)	46	45	N/A	4	10/17-20	SMS/Star-Bulletin	Oct. 28: Democrats complained that the Star-Bulletin survey covered only Oahu. We thought it was bad for Kerry anyway. Now we've verified that the poll was statewide. Kerry's only consolation is that Bush is too far from 50.
	43.3	42.6	N/A	4	10/13-18	Honolulu Advertiser
	41	51	4	4	9/7-11	ARG
MI (17)	46	52	N/A	4.1	10/28-31	Reuters/Zogby	Oct. 29, 10:30 a.m. ET: Research 2000 adds to the evidence for Kerry. No poll on the board has Bush doing better than 47 percent. Oct. 30, 12:30 a.m. ET: Bush shows some staying power in the Zogby poll and cracks his former ceiling of 47. We remain skeptical in view of the six pollsters on the other side. Oct. 30, 11:45 p.m. ET: Skepticism vindicated. The nonpartisan polls are unanimous once more.
	45	52	N/A	4.1	10/28-31	Reuters/Zogby
	46	50	N/A	5	10/25-31	Rasmussen (A)
	45	44	1	3	10/29-31	Strategic Vision (R)
	47	50	N/A	3.9	10/28-30	SurveyUSA (A)
	47	49	N/A	5	10/24-30	Rasmussen (A)
	45	47	N/A	4	10/27-29	Mason-Dixon
	41	43	2	4	10/26-28	Detroit News
	46	50	1	4	10/25-27	Research 2000
	40	46	2	4	10/25-27	Detroit News
	47	47	1	3	10/24-26	Strategic Vision (R)
	43	49	1	4	10/18-21	EPIC/MRA
	44	51	1	3.9	10/18-20	SurveyUSA (A)
	46	47	N/A	4	10/15-18	Mason-Dixon
	40	48	1	3	10/12-14	Strategic Vision (R)
	43	48	2	4	10/11-13	Research 2000
MO (11)	51.4	47.2	0.7	2.7	10/25-31	Zogby/WSJ (O)	Oct. 30, 11:45 p.m. ET: Bush safe. All the evidence since early October has him up 3 points or more. (Read Slate's dispatch from Missouri.)
	52	47	N/A	3.8	10/29-31	SurveyUSA (A)
	49	44	N/A	4	10/27-29	Mason-Dixon
	52.7	45.6	0.9	3.3	10/25-28	Zogby/WSJ (O)
	49	45	N/A	4.1	10/22-26	KC Star
	52	45	N/A	3.8	10/23-25	SurveyUSA (A)
	48	45	N/A	3.5	10/22-24	Research 2000
	50	45	N/A	5	10/17-20	Rasmussen (A)
	51	45	N/A	3.9	10/16-18	SurveyUSA (A)
	49	44	N/A	4	10/15-18	Mason-Dixon
	51	45	N/A	5	9/22-10/5	Rasmussen (A)
	50	44	N/A	4	9/16-19	ARG
	49	42	N/A	3.5	9/13-16	Research 2000
NJ (15)	43	48	2	5	10/27-31	Quinnipiac	Oct. 30, 11:45 p.m. ET: Kerry probably safe. Two FDU samples a week apart reaffirm his solid lead. Bush hasn't cracked 46 all month, and no conventional survey has shown him winning here since April.
	42	42	1	3	10/29-31	Strategic Vision (R)
	41	53	N/A	5	10/17-30	Rasmussen (A)
	41	45	N/A	3.6	10/27-29	Star Ledger
	42	54	N/A	3.5	10/27-29	SurveyUSA (A)
	40	47	N/A	4.5	10/21-28	FDU Public Mind
	44	44	1	3	10/24-26	Strategic Vision (R)
	46	46	2	3.4	10/21-25	Quinnipiac
	43	44	1	3	10/16-18	Strategic Vision (R)
	38	51	N/A	N/A	10/14-17	Star-Ledger
	46	46	2	4.5	10/8-14	FDU Public Mind
	44	53	N/A	5	9/26-10/10	Rasmussen (A)
	45	50	N/A	3.8	10/1-3	SurveyUSA (A)
OR (7)	43.8	53.9	0.5	3.0	10/25-31	Zogby/WSJ (O)	Oct. 30, 11:45 p.m. ET: Kerry safe. Seven straight leads with an average margin of 5 to 6 points. (Read Slate's dispatch from Oregon.)
	44	50	N/A	4	10/27-29	Mason-Dixon
	42.9	54.5	0.2	3.6	10/25-28	Zogby/WSJ (O)
	47	50	N/A	3.8	10/25-27	SurveyUSA (A)
	43	49	N/A	3.8	10/25-27	Oregonian/KATU
	46	50	N/A	4	10/25-27	ARG
	43	49	N/A	4	10/29-21	Research 2000
	43	51	N/A	4.5	10/8-21	Rasmussen (A)
	45	53	N/A	4	10/15-18	CNN/USA/Gallup
	46	47	N/A	4	10/15-18	Mason-Dixon
	44	50	N/A	4	10/9-13	Research 2000
	48	43	1	4.9	10/9-13	Riley Research
	44	49	2	4	10/10-12	ARG
	44	53	N/A	4	10/9-11	SurveyUSA (A)
VA (13)	51	47	N/A	4.1	10/27-29	SurveyUSA (A)	Bush safe. Mason-Dixon has Bush up 6, suggesting no change since September.
	49	40	N/A	5	10/20-26	Times Dispatch
	50	44	N/A	4	10/22-25	Mason-Dixon
	50	46	N/A	3.9	10/16-18	SurveyUSA (A)
	50	50	N/A	5	9/14-27	Rasmussen (A)
	49	43	1	4	9/24-27	Mason-Dixon
	49	43	N/A	4	9/12-14	ARG
WA (11)	43.4	54.6	0.3	2.3	10/25-31	Zogby/WSJ (O)	Oct. 28: Kerry safe. No lead below 5 points. (Read Slate's dispatch from Washington.)
	45	51	2	3	10/29-31	Strategic Vision (R)
	45	50	N/A	3	10/25-26	Mason-Dixon
	44	50	2	3	10/24-26	Strategic Vision (R)
	45	51	N/A	4	10/23-25	King5 TV
	45	52	N/A	4	10/15-17	Survey USA (A)
	44	52	N/A	5	10/6-19	Rasmussen (A)
	44	49	2	3	10/4-6	Strategic Vision (R)
	43	54	N/A	4	10/2-4	Survey USA (A)
	43	50	N/A	5	9/10-23	Rasmussen (A)
WV (5)	50.1	45.6	0.2	4.1	10/25-31	Zogby/WSJ (O)	Oct. 30, 11:45 p.m. ET: Bush safe. Even if you think Mason-Dixon overstates Bush's strength, he has gained 3 points in their survey over the past two weeks. (Read Slate's dispatch from West Virginia.)
	51	43	N/A	4	10/27-29	Mason-Dixon
	52.3	43.0	N/A	4.9	10/25-28	Zogby (O)
	49	44	N/A	4	10/15-18	Mason-Dixon
	47	45	2	4	10/12-14	Global Strategy Group (D)
	51	45	N/A	5	9/17-20	Gallup
	50	44	N/A	4.5	9/14-16	Rasmussen (A)
	46	46	2	4	9/14-16	ARG

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William Saletan is Slate's national correspondent and author of Bearing Right: How Conservatives Won the Abortion War. Follow him on Twitter here. David Kenner is a former Slate intern. Louisa Thomas is on the editorial staff of The New Yorker.

Photographs of: George Bush smiling by Paul J. Richards/AFP/Getty Images; Bush frowning by Hector Mata/AFP/Getty Images; John Kerry smiling by Jason Cohn/Reuters; Kerry frowning by David Denoma/Reuters.

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